The latest poll results on the 2016 Miami-Dade mayoral race may 
not be good news for School Board Member Raquel Regalado, whose numbers slipped from poll markers released six months ago.
But it’s even worse news for Mayor Carlos Gimenez.
Sure, he’s got a 23-point lead of his sole declared challenger, a lead you will likely hear about a lot this week as his trumpeters spread the news. But the more important results, especially 13 months from an election, are that only half of the voters polled think he’s doing a good or excellent job as mayor — and even fewer of those, only 40 percent, would vote for him today.
That’s really a bad showing. Especially since they like so much of his initiatives.
Read related story: Tiny gap in Raquel Regalado poll is huge, but no big surprise
The poll, conducted earlier this month by Bedixen & Amandi for The Miami Herald and El Nuevo Herald, was really an issues poll, with the mayoral and presidential questions thrown in because, well, because they were doing a countywide poll and you have to take advantage of the opportunity, right?
And voters seem to be happy with everything.
Close to 70% want the mega mall/theme park that the mayor secured for Northwest Miami-Dade.
Closer to 80 percent support both a soccer stadium by Marlins Park in Little Havana and body cameras on police officers.
Seventy percent of the respondents think that jobs — which has been the mayor’s mantra (read: campaign message) in recent weeks — is the most important issue facing the county.
So if his rhetoric and all his pet projects are so popular, why is the incumbent mayor with more than four years in office not doing better? Why were a majority of the respondents (43%) undecided?
“The poll shows that while the mayor has a significant lead over his current challenger, he’s still 
vulnerable because so many people are undecideds,” said pollster Fernand Amandi. “It just appears that Raquel Regalado is not that challenger.”
Funny enough, Amandi did a poll for auto mogul Norman Braman just six months ago that showed Regalado within six points of Gimenez. According to this new poll, the mayor went up 10 points and she slid seven. Maybe because the new poll did not include Commissioner Xavier Suarez as a potential candidate? He hasn’t made his decision, but got 15% of the support in the Braman January poll.
Maybe the poll bodes best for Suarez, as someone who can come in and appeal to the undecideds and some of Regalado’s anti-Gimenez votes. Because both polls have that same thing in common: They present the best news to whoever that perfect candidate waiting in the wings might be. Amandi, who bleeds blue, might naturally want that to be a Democrat who would make it rain for Hillary Clinton in November, but I don’t think he would intentionally skewer the numbers and risk his reputation as a solid pollster for that.
Still, while he and others want to cast this as Regalado’s death knoll, they might want to look at the results in context. Here are five things to consider:
(1) We are 13 months from the election. So if a poll is a snapshot in time, this one has gotta be a pretty damn blurry picture.
(2) Regalado, as she said, has not really begun to campaign. While she has been front and center on the issues and countered Gimenez on everything, which i
s too much, she hasn’t done any countywide messaging to registered voters in either ads or mailers or phone banks. The mayor, meanwhile, had an ad in the paper about body cameras the week of the poll and a radio spot either right before or during. Both were paid by a non profit called Business Action League, which is a 501C4 that does not have to disclose who paid for the promos (more on that later). Regalado may have published a few videos on her
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Poll results are nothing for Carlos Gimenez to brag about added by Ladra on
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If you think anything will change. A of you are delusional. Politics will continue as usual; and the sheep (MDC voters) will continue to be taken to slaughter. Most voters are low info and they follow the shiny objects. You just need to see the and read the national polls. Donald Trump is atop of the polls “Donald Trump” That’s how dumb most voters are, and that includes MDC voters.
Harry Truman once said How far would Moses have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt?
Functionally I believe we should look at any poll this far out under that logic. Without much blood being spilled through TV ads and only the most interested paying attention I am surprised how well Raquel is polling.
I think Ladra’s assertions are right. Gimenez has run county wide twice in the past 5 years, one would think he could do better than 40% against someone like Raquel who is not well known out of Hispanic communities and her school board district.
One question I would love to have seen in the poll is how would an unnamed opponent do against Gimenez?
THANKS GOD FOR LADRA!!!YOU FOOLS DON’T FORGET THAT
GIMENEZ STARTED HIS POLITICAL TRAINING AS MIAMI CITY MANAGER UNDER PSYCHO MAYOR JOE CAROLLO, NEED TO SAY NO MORE…THANKS AGAIN LADRA!
Back in February, you posted about a poll by this same company showing this race closer and all the anti-Gimenez folks were hooting and hollering about how valid those numbers were. Now that the numbers look different, it’s a fraud?
Gimenez gets to enjoy the bump that comes from a County budget that has finally rebounded a little bit. But he also has to carry the problems that come with actually being Mayor. Raquel is smart and she’s picking her spots to ding up the Mayor. It’s easy to sit on the side and point out everything the other person does that you don’t agree with, but that only takes you so far.
An elected official in a high profile office has about 3 years of popularity before everyone blames everything on them.
Ask Alex Penelas, Carlos Alverez, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Charlie Crist.. First 3 years, they could walk on water, after that… everything wrong in the world is their fault.
Ladra never said the poll is a fraud. In fact, quite the opposite, I say that I do not think this pollster would manipulate anything because of his reputation.
I do think, however, that the curious timing helps the mayor — gives him that “bump,” as you call it. And I do wonder why the Herald won’t just come out and say “we paid for it,” rather than some cryptic “financial arrangements” quote that doesn’t really clarify that. Those are legitimate concerns.
Love, Ladra
Mr. Carlos Gimenez is going to win.period
Add to that period that if the dog you call Mr. Gimenez wins in 2016 it is only because the corrupt special interests of this county prefer to have a puppet in place that will feed their hunger for juicy contracts more than preserving the democratic principles that this nation stands for. If supporting someone who corrupts our electorate system by stealing absentee ballots from the elderly and ill, takes jobs away from librarians, firemen, policemen, waste disposal personnel, etc., gives away public spaces to private entities and cares little about our environment is your thing then vote for him. Masochism is a defense mechanism.
Smart cookie apparently doesn’t know the difference between a cookie and a static ip address? Must be one of the mayor’s highly paid county IT people..
However I do take issue with Ladra’s headline, this poll is nothing but something the Mayor’s people will brag about during the upcoming shake ’em down period.. Nobody else… and certainly not the pastelito voter, will give a rats ass what it says a year from now.
BTW give Hanks a break, he has far more balls than the last 3 lap dogs the herald assigned (one actually ending up working for the county) .. It’s hard to be a beat reporter and rip your subject a new ahole in print, no matter how much your subject may deserve it because as a reporter no access=no job.
lastly IMO the take away from this poll should be
Run XS, Run!
I know you have an axe to grind but it seems to cloud your judgement. It’s one thing to hate (don’t say you don’t because you do) but to hate beyond reason does your journalistic integrity a disservice. This reminds me of your Cason jihad – so blinded by rage that you couldn’t see that your boy was losing. Even when he lost you went all Baghdad Bob on us and insisted that it was a victory of sorts. Truth of the matter is that Gimenez would need a whole lot higher unfavorable to be in trouble. Barring some unforeseen scandal or natural disaster that is badly handled – he has nothing but butt kissing initiatives for the next year. You would need a really compelling reason to switch horses especially when he is pushing all the popular stuff. So how about all the old stuff? Well, the electorate has a really short memory and if they are employed, fat and happy, well then their memory is even shorter. Don’t get me wrong – you are right on a ton of stuff. The annual budget brouhaha is nightmarish if not amateurish. There are things to legitimately call into question but I just don’t see how the current names Regalado and Suarez topple him. It would have to be a big name, well financed Dem or perhaps a new name like Jose Javier Rodriguez but he’s waiting for Ros to go away and Papi Regalado has been kissing his ass for awhile.
Nobody is paying that much attention to an election that’s 13 months away. The margin between Gimenez & Raquel & whoever else gets into the race will tighten up the closer we get to Nov. 2016.
But when the TV ads start up, the debates get going, and the electorate is confronted with Gimenez’s lackluster record, then the mayor’s margin is likely to slip or disappear altogether.
OKAY SMART COOKIE WHAT GOOD THINGS HAVE YOU TO SAY ABOUT THIS FOOL WE CALL A STRONG MAYOR. IS IT THE TRIPS HE TAKES TO PARIS, OR WHEN HE WENT TO SEE THE POPE ( which I imagine is still praying for his soul ) OR WHEN HE WANTED TO FILL OUT THE BAY TO BUILD A SPOT FOR BECKMAN, OR WAS IT WHEN HE WENT TO OUR STATE CAPITAL TO ADVOCATE FOR THE DOLPHINS, OR THE FACT THAT HE SUCH A FAMILY MAN THAT MOST OF HIS KIDS AND THEIR SPOUSES ARE LOBBYST IN THE COUNTY. OR PERHAPS IS WHEN HE HIRED EVERY INCOMPETENT PERSON TO ASSIST HIM AND YET LEFT THE DIRECTOR OF TRANSPORTATION GO ( THE ONLY PERSON THAT COULD HAVE STRAIGHTEN THAT MESS IF HE WOULD LISTEN ) I KNOW I HAVE MISSED A FEW RELEVANT ISSUES, BUT TO WRITE POSITIVE THINGS ABOUT THAT FOOL IS “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”
The one question on this poll that I can’t imagine getting such a possitive response is the Mega Mall – I can only see this as a push question because there’s no way that those familiar with the issue are in favor. On the issue of Ms Regalado it’s puzzling that her numbers dropped, but I agree with the fact that she hasn’t started a campaign yet and that Mr. Gimenez was running ads on radio about his greatness at the time of the survey. With results like this I always ask the same question, who are these people they spoke to?
I want to be optimistic and see this as a starting point for Ms Regalado – I would pay money to see her in a debate with Mr Gimenez – and if in Spanish I’d double my contribution. Let the games begin!
I’m a daily reader, and miss your investigations during gap days when you don’t post.
Mike Hernandez is an amazing wizard when it comes to spinning a bitter and mean-spirited, surface thinker into a benevolent, generous, and wise county mayor.
A friend believes that a second term, lame duck Gimenez will be less reactionary with county operations than a first term Regalado, who will need to clean house. That’s her reasoning for considering him even with his track record.
Regardless of what any detractor may say here, your blogs and analysis of political occurrences in Miami Dade County are dead on Elaine. I much prefer reading one of your blogs here than reading the sugar coated articles put on by the Herald’s Douglas Hanks, Miriam Marquez or any of their ilk.
The fact of the matter with Gimenez is this: he hired campaign manager Al Lorenzo in 2011. Lorenzo paid boleteras to obtain illicit absentee ballots with the consent and knowledge of Gimenez and a list of politicians as long as my arm. A corrupt State Attorney chose to sit on the information and brushed it under the rug because Lorenzo was also her campaign manager and the same boleteras were collecting illicit ballots for her as well! That is CORRUPTION AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS!
If you start with this premise, Gimenez governs in a house of cards with a rotten foundation. The pestilence stemming from Gimenez’s lackeys such as Mike Hernandez or the cast of opportunist lobbyists and consultants serves only to hide the fact that Mayor Carlos Gimenez is the most corrupt mayor to ever serve in Miami Dade County.
Elaine, I take my hat off to you for having more guts than most men I know, specially those self serving cowards who head our local, state and federal law enforcement agencies in this area and out of fear or self preservation choose to turn a blind eye and give Gimenez and his white collar organized crime gang a pass.
I think the readers should know, Christine, that you and Smart Cookie are the same reader. Tsk, tsk… trying to fool us, are you?
I’m not campaigning for anyone but I do think that she is a better alternative than Gimenez. Almost anyone would be.
And I do not hate Gimenez. I hate what he’s done with himself. And what happened in Hialeah? Because you are wrong. I have forgotten about that.
It’s more about the $4 million he steered to his son’s company and the 700 employees he NEEDLESSLY threatened to fire last year and the useless trips (read: vacations) to France in 2013 AND 2015 and the $5 million a year to the Dolphins, on the third try because he wanted to give them more, and the bad deal with the Heat, and the decimation of the public corruption squad at the police department so they couldn’t continue to investigate his absentee ballot fraud, and the secret dealings with Donald Trump to give away a golf course (I know you like Trump but that shouldn’t mean we give him our assets) and the lies and the cheating and the fact that he is using his position to line the pockets of his family and friends. There is more that I haven’t gotten to. And all of THAT is FAR worse than whatever silliness happened in Hialeah. Get over it already.
Love, Ladra
That’s telling ’em, Ladra!
(Smart cookie ain’t so smart.)
Hmm!!! Why should Regalado bother to start her campaign since she has you doing it for her? Let’s see when she starts campaigning if she will have anything to show. It seems that at the School Board meetings she is always blaming Tallahasee when the subject of Common Core comes into the picture. She does not want to take any responsibility whatsoever.
Ladra I guess that incident in Hialeah did pissed you off more than you want to admit. You have hated Gimenez’ guts ever since. You were the one that brought Regalado into the picture and have pushed for her ever since. I hope Dade County voters see what is happening here and vote accordingly. Ever since that incident you have never say anything good about Gimenez. It is a shame.