(Continued from previous page)
Facebook page, pero por favor, as Alejandro Sanz likes to say, no es lo mismo ni es igual. She has not yet started to educate the public, large scale, about who Gimenez really is and why she might be a better alternative.
(3) Because of (2) above, her name recognition outside the city of Miami, where her father is mayor, is not even close to where it should be and far below Gimenez’s, especially after…
Read related story: Miami-Dade: Carlos Gimenez saves us — from himself
(4) Gimenez has recently used the bully pulpit megaphone to make “good news” announcements, including a lot of talk about transit and lowering tolls, updates on Liberty Square Rising — the largest public housing initiative ever embarked upon in the county in what is inarguably the most needy neighborhood — and a 2016 budget with no new tax rate increases but plenty of new services (which people forget Gimenez cut in the two prior years). The breathy “I have saved us” announcement came July 7. The poll of 600 registered voters was conducted July 8 to 14.
(5) All the mayoral announcements have created tons of earned media for Gimenez. Normally camera-shy, he’s been on the radio and TV rounds more often than usual and visited the Miami Herald editorial board just days ago. The week of the poll, during coverage of the budget details, he was cast as a savior and hero by a lot of media 
stories, including a Herald editorial during the second day of polling that basically praised Gimenez for “sharing the county’s bounty.”
The timing almost stinks a little, don’t it? That this poll would be conducted, out of the blue, 13 months from the election, on the same week of the budget announcement, in time to ride the mayor’s media high, seems like too much of a happy coincidence for the Gimenez camp. Ladra does not believe in coincidences.
“It was not a mayoral poll,” said Amandi, adding that the poll was originally developed around the questions on the issues, which had become timely in recent weeks. Voters were polled on the decision to treat marijuana with a citation and fine rather than arrest (62% favored it) and on the services provide by ride sharing companies like Uber, which have seen a crackdown in Broward and Monroe counties (70% favored). There was also a question about the new soccer stadium proposed site at Marlins Park — which an agreement for was announced this weekend, after the poll was completed.
Miami Herald Political Editor Jay Ducassi told Ladra that he and Amandi had been discussing the questions for at least 10 days before the polling team went out in the field July 8. While Ducassi would not discuss the specifics of who wrote the questions, who pushed the “go” button or confirm that the paper paid for the poll — in response to allegations in another report that it may have been paid by a third party — he said the process for its development was the same as in previous polls done for the paper by Bendixen and three other firms before theirs.
“When we do a poll, and I’ve been doing polls for 16 years, we never talk about any financial arrangements,” Ducassi said, sounding a little cryptic.
Why not? It’s a legitimate question and Ducassi should have no reason to decline to comment. That’s why campaign finance reports are public, right? Transparency is key, no? I didn’t ask how much he paid for it just whether he paid for it. We all wanted to know that Norman Braman was the one who paid for the poll that he shared with Regalado. Wouldn’t Ducassi be demanding to know who paid for the poll if it wasn’t him? Of course, he would. Which is why Ladra is giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Just as I gave it to the Herald when they commissioned the last Bendixen poll done almost exactly a year ago — when, by the way, 53% of the respondents thought Gimenez was doing a good or excellent job.
So the mayor’s numbers have slid, too.
Read related story: Poll: Mayor Carlos Gimenez is too comfy close to lobbyists
Ladra thinks they have actually slid further and that Bendixen and the Herald would have gotten some better, truer numbers had the poll not taken place on what is probably the mayor’s best week in at least a year. There’s a reason why the Gimenez campaign hasn’t released the results of their own internal poll, or polls, for which Dario Moreno has been paid $34,000 by the Miami-Dade Residents First PAC — $15,000 last month and $19,000 in April (which, by the way, is probably a lot more than the Herald paid).
And we haven’t heard a peep about those numbers.
Maybe it’s because they don’t reflect what can be argued is an artificially inflated lead in the Bendixen poll.
Or maybe it’s because the G-Men campaign team realizes one other important fact that could become the sixth thing to consider: And that is that Regalado is actually in a better spot than Gimenez was four months before the mayoral recall election of 2011, when he trailed former Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaina by 29 points.
In fact, Ladra heard that at it’s worst, the spread was Robaina, 41, Gimenez, 9 — and the man who would later be elected mayor actually wanted to quit, according to sources who all take credit for talking him into staying in the race.
And Robaina was not the incumbent riding a wave of positive news and breathy bully pulpit announcements.
Pages: 1 2
Poll results are nothing for Carlos Gimenez to brag about added by Ladra on
View all posts by Ladra →
[…] Read related story: Poll results are nothing for Carlos Gimenez to brag about […]
If you think anything will change. A of you are delusional. Politics will continue as usual; and the sheep (MDC voters) will continue to be taken to slaughter. Most voters are low info and they follow the shiny objects. You just need to see the and read the national polls. Donald Trump is atop of the polls “Donald Trump” That’s how dumb most voters are, and that includes MDC voters.
Harry Truman once said How far would Moses have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt?
Functionally I believe we should look at any poll this far out under that logic. Without much blood being spilled through TV ads and only the most interested paying attention I am surprised how well Raquel is polling.
I think Ladra’s assertions are right. Gimenez has run county wide twice in the past 5 years, one would think he could do better than 40% against someone like Raquel who is not well known out of Hispanic communities and her school board district.
One question I would love to have seen in the poll is how would an unnamed opponent do against Gimenez?
THANKS GOD FOR LADRA!!!YOU FOOLS DON’T FORGET THAT
GIMENEZ STARTED HIS POLITICAL TRAINING AS MIAMI CITY MANAGER UNDER PSYCHO MAYOR JOE CAROLLO, NEED TO SAY NO MORE…THANKS AGAIN LADRA!
Back in February, you posted about a poll by this same company showing this race closer and all the anti-Gimenez folks were hooting and hollering about how valid those numbers were. Now that the numbers look different, it’s a fraud?
Gimenez gets to enjoy the bump that comes from a County budget that has finally rebounded a little bit. But he also has to carry the problems that come with actually being Mayor. Raquel is smart and she’s picking her spots to ding up the Mayor. It’s easy to sit on the side and point out everything the other person does that you don’t agree with, but that only takes you so far.
An elected official in a high profile office has about 3 years of popularity before everyone blames everything on them.
Ask Alex Penelas, Carlos Alverez, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Charlie Crist.. First 3 years, they could walk on water, after that… everything wrong in the world is their fault.
Ladra never said the poll is a fraud. In fact, quite the opposite, I say that I do not think this pollster would manipulate anything because of his reputation.
I do think, however, that the curious timing helps the mayor — gives him that “bump,” as you call it. And I do wonder why the Herald won’t just come out and say “we paid for it,” rather than some cryptic “financial arrangements” quote that doesn’t really clarify that. Those are legitimate concerns.
Love, Ladra
Mr. Carlos Gimenez is going to win.period
Add to that period that if the dog you call Mr. Gimenez wins in 2016 it is only because the corrupt special interests of this county prefer to have a puppet in place that will feed their hunger for juicy contracts more than preserving the democratic principles that this nation stands for. If supporting someone who corrupts our electorate system by stealing absentee ballots from the elderly and ill, takes jobs away from librarians, firemen, policemen, waste disposal personnel, etc., gives away public spaces to private entities and cares little about our environment is your thing then vote for him. Masochism is a defense mechanism.
Smart cookie apparently doesn’t know the difference between a cookie and a static ip address? Must be one of the mayor’s highly paid county IT people..
However I do take issue with Ladra’s headline, this poll is nothing but something the Mayor’s people will brag about during the upcoming shake ’em down period.. Nobody else… and certainly not the pastelito voter, will give a rats ass what it says a year from now.
BTW give Hanks a break, he has far more balls than the last 3 lap dogs the herald assigned (one actually ending up working for the county) .. It’s hard to be a beat reporter and rip your subject a new ahole in print, no matter how much your subject may deserve it because as a reporter no access=no job.
lastly IMO the take away from this poll should be
Run XS, Run!
I know you have an axe to grind but it seems to cloud your judgement. It’s one thing to hate (don’t say you don’t because you do) but to hate beyond reason does your journalistic integrity a disservice. This reminds me of your Cason jihad – so blinded by rage that you couldn’t see that your boy was losing. Even when he lost you went all Baghdad Bob on us and insisted that it was a victory of sorts. Truth of the matter is that Gimenez would need a whole lot higher unfavorable to be in trouble. Barring some unforeseen scandal or natural disaster that is badly handled – he has nothing but butt kissing initiatives for the next year. You would need a really compelling reason to switch horses especially when he is pushing all the popular stuff. So how about all the old stuff? Well, the electorate has a really short memory and if they are employed, fat and happy, well then their memory is even shorter. Don’t get me wrong – you are right on a ton of stuff. The annual budget brouhaha is nightmarish if not amateurish. There are things to legitimately call into question but I just don’t see how the current names Regalado and Suarez topple him. It would have to be a big name, well financed Dem or perhaps a new name like Jose Javier Rodriguez but he’s waiting for Ros to go away and Papi Regalado has been kissing his ass for awhile.
Nobody is paying that much attention to an election that’s 13 months away. The margin between Gimenez & Raquel & whoever else gets into the race will tighten up the closer we get to Nov. 2016.
But when the TV ads start up, the debates get going, and the electorate is confronted with Gimenez’s lackluster record, then the mayor’s margin is likely to slip or disappear altogether.
OKAY SMART COOKIE WHAT GOOD THINGS HAVE YOU TO SAY ABOUT THIS FOOL WE CALL A STRONG MAYOR. IS IT THE TRIPS HE TAKES TO PARIS, OR WHEN HE WENT TO SEE THE POPE ( which I imagine is still praying for his soul ) OR WHEN HE WANTED TO FILL OUT THE BAY TO BUILD A SPOT FOR BECKMAN, OR WAS IT WHEN HE WENT TO OUR STATE CAPITAL TO ADVOCATE FOR THE DOLPHINS, OR THE FACT THAT HE SUCH A FAMILY MAN THAT MOST OF HIS KIDS AND THEIR SPOUSES ARE LOBBYST IN THE COUNTY. OR PERHAPS IS WHEN HE HIRED EVERY INCOMPETENT PERSON TO ASSIST HIM AND YET LEFT THE DIRECTOR OF TRANSPORTATION GO ( THE ONLY PERSON THAT COULD HAVE STRAIGHTEN THAT MESS IF HE WOULD LISTEN ) I KNOW I HAVE MISSED A FEW RELEVANT ISSUES, BUT TO WRITE POSITIVE THINGS ABOUT THAT FOOL IS “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”
The one question on this poll that I can’t imagine getting such a possitive response is the Mega Mall – I can only see this as a push question because there’s no way that those familiar with the issue are in favor. On the issue of Ms Regalado it’s puzzling that her numbers dropped, but I agree with the fact that she hasn’t started a campaign yet and that Mr. Gimenez was running ads on radio about his greatness at the time of the survey. With results like this I always ask the same question, who are these people they spoke to?
I want to be optimistic and see this as a starting point for Ms Regalado – I would pay money to see her in a debate with Mr Gimenez – and if in Spanish I’d double my contribution. Let the games begin!
I’m a daily reader, and miss your investigations during gap days when you don’t post.
Mike Hernandez is an amazing wizard when it comes to spinning a bitter and mean-spirited, surface thinker into a benevolent, generous, and wise county mayor.
A friend believes that a second term, lame duck Gimenez will be less reactionary with county operations than a first term Regalado, who will need to clean house. That’s her reasoning for considering him even with his track record.
Regardless of what any detractor may say here, your blogs and analysis of political occurrences in Miami Dade County are dead on Elaine. I much prefer reading one of your blogs here than reading the sugar coated articles put on by the Herald’s Douglas Hanks, Miriam Marquez or any of their ilk.
The fact of the matter with Gimenez is this: he hired campaign manager Al Lorenzo in 2011. Lorenzo paid boleteras to obtain illicit absentee ballots with the consent and knowledge of Gimenez and a list of politicians as long as my arm. A corrupt State Attorney chose to sit on the information and brushed it under the rug because Lorenzo was also her campaign manager and the same boleteras were collecting illicit ballots for her as well! That is CORRUPTION AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS!
If you start with this premise, Gimenez governs in a house of cards with a rotten foundation. The pestilence stemming from Gimenez’s lackeys such as Mike Hernandez or the cast of opportunist lobbyists and consultants serves only to hide the fact that Mayor Carlos Gimenez is the most corrupt mayor to ever serve in Miami Dade County.
Elaine, I take my hat off to you for having more guts than most men I know, specially those self serving cowards who head our local, state and federal law enforcement agencies in this area and out of fear or self preservation choose to turn a blind eye and give Gimenez and his white collar organized crime gang a pass.
I think the readers should know, Christine, that you and Smart Cookie are the same reader. Tsk, tsk… trying to fool us, are you?
I’m not campaigning for anyone but I do think that she is a better alternative than Gimenez. Almost anyone would be.
And I do not hate Gimenez. I hate what he’s done with himself. And what happened in Hialeah? Because you are wrong. I have forgotten about that.
It’s more about the $4 million he steered to his son’s company and the 700 employees he NEEDLESSLY threatened to fire last year and the useless trips (read: vacations) to France in 2013 AND 2015 and the $5 million a year to the Dolphins, on the third try because he wanted to give them more, and the bad deal with the Heat, and the decimation of the public corruption squad at the police department so they couldn’t continue to investigate his absentee ballot fraud, and the secret dealings with Donald Trump to give away a golf course (I know you like Trump but that shouldn’t mean we give him our assets) and the lies and the cheating and the fact that he is using his position to line the pockets of his family and friends. There is more that I haven’t gotten to. And all of THAT is FAR worse than whatever silliness happened in Hialeah. Get over it already.
Love, Ladra
That’s telling ’em, Ladra!
(Smart cookie ain’t so smart.)
Hmm!!! Why should Regalado bother to start her campaign since she has you doing it for her? Let’s see when she starts campaigning if she will have anything to show. It seems that at the School Board meetings she is always blaming Tallahasee when the subject of Common Core comes into the picture. She does not want to take any responsibility whatsoever.
Ladra I guess that incident in Hialeah did pissed you off more than you want to admit. You have hated Gimenez’ guts ever since. You were the one that brought Regalado into the picture and have pushed for her ever since. I hope Dade County voters see what is happening here and vote accordingly. Ever since that incident you have never say anything good about Gimenez. It is a shame.