Tiny gap in Raquel Regalado poll is huge, but no big surprise

Tiny gap in Raquel Regalado poll is huge, but no big surprise
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Watch out, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos “Cry Wolf” Gimenez.

analysisThe results of the enormous poll commissioned by auto mogul and political meddler Norman Braman are out and indicate very good news for not only Miami-Dade School Board Member Raquel Regalado, who now knows she can, indeed, take on the current county mayor. The poll bodes well also for any other credible candidate who wants to challenge Gimenez.

Why? Quite simply, because an incumbent should have at least a double digit lead 17 months from Election Day. Period.

No matter what else the Gimenez apologists and supporters say about this being a push poll and the sampling being manipulated, there is one thing they cannot deny or avoid: This poll, done by Bendixen Amandi & Associates in late January, still has Regalado within six points of the incumbent mayor.

That’s rare if not unheard of with almost a year and half to go to nick at him some more.

Read related story: Raquel Regalado hints louder on 2016 mayoral run

In the “if the election were today” question, between Regalado, the mayor and Commissioner “Mayor Sir” Xavier Suarez, the mayorxavraqgim got only 30 percent of the support. Regalado got 24% and Suarez got 15%, which is about the only surprising thing in the poll. Suarez, by all accounts, should have done better.

“Polls done by candidates don’t get a lot of credence,” Suarez told Ladra, though one wonders if he’d agree after he does his own internal poll later this year.

“It’s never strange when a poll commissioned by a particular candidate is favorable to that candidate,” adding that he had been called at home by a pollster and that the survey ended when he chose himself on the “if voting today” question.

Read related story: Xavier Suarez petition, barbs keep him in mayoral mix

Braman commissioned the poll but it seems pretty obvious to everyone that he likes Regalado, who apparently helped in the formulation of and who we assume gets to see the whole poll and not just the parts that have been shared with the media. Does anybody else find it ironic that the man who is most responsible — through his funding of the 2011 mayoral recall — for putting Gimenez in office is now equally invested in taking him out? Like the rest of us, he seems severely disappointed.

But the headline here is that such a, well, tiny gap between raquelpoll any challenger and the incumbent this far out from Election Day is, well, huge. Gimenez should have done better even in a push poll. And that is more than a little encouraging for Regalado, who is thisclose to making an announcement.

“I have to make the decision soon. I can’t keep drawing it out,” Regalado told Ladra.

Gimenez’s campaign finance chief, onetime driver-turned-successful-lobbyist Ralph Garcia-Toledo, did not answer the phone or return Ladra’s texts. But his response to the poll was to tell the Miami Herald that the mayor’s first campaign finance report would show he collected $500,000 — which could be considered a different kind of poll (more on that later). Other members of the Gimenez team tried to make little of the Braman poll, which they said was way early and exaggerated.

They say it was a push poll with more women polled and more elderly, but Regalado said the language on the push questions was written so that it would be balanced. On the question about Gimenez’s support for stadiums, for example, it notes that advocates cite the economic impact. She also told Ladra

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5 Responses to "Tiny gap in Raquel Regalado poll is huge, but no big surprise"

  1. are anonymous quotes “paid for” or “sponsored by.”
    if one is too afraid, or compromised, to identify oneself, they should stick to the sports pages.

  2. The latest from Mayor (no new taxes) Giminez is a fee for registering your burglar alarm even when no false alarms (now $15.00 a year, previously $0). Also, people who have two green county garbage cans for automated pickup have to pay $79.50 a year to have the additional 2nd can picked up. Previously not charged other than the garbage fee in your property taxes. These are indeed nex taxes (backdoor) rammed down our throats. Vote for Mayor Giminez? Not even for dog catcher.

  3. There are always two conflicting sides to this Mayor. The guy promoting himself as honest and a tax cutter because he took half pay for the position, took the unions to task, and reduced county depts in number (on paper but it was really just shuffling staff and changing Dept. .)

    However, the general voter, if willing to scratch the surface, uncovers a laundry list of his decisions that have weakened the county.

    1- The inability to work with a $6.2 billion budget, leaving the County Commission to scramble at the very last moment with vital decisions that have severe repercussion to residents.
    2- The use of reserves that were meant to pay off Marlin stadium debt., offset future property tax increases in the 2020s.
    3- The use of CRA funding for Miami Beach to offset current property taxes eventually costing property taxpayers $80 million.
    4- The personal involvement with sports stadiums’ billionaire owners.
    5- The inability to work with county staff who are represented by unions that are working without a contract.
    6- The failure to value past expenditures such as the hundreds of millions invested in the expansion of our public libraries in the 2000’s.
    7- The failure to speak to the public about serious events occuring on our streets, for example: Martin Luther Day’s street takeover
    8- Leaving to attend the Dolphin’s 1973 anniversary celebration at the White House when he was scheduled for a Florida City Town Hall Meeting. He cancelled at the last minute although knowing he was attending this event.

    This is a few of the reasons he is unworthy of the position.

  4. When you talk to Carlos clearing thinks he is doing the right thing..

    His is a card carrying (R) and as such believes the Berkowitzs Ross and Arisons of the world make our economy go round.

    They may but what Carlos doesn’t realize is that they would still make the economy go round without a lousy few million in our taxes, and that few million in our taxes hurts our bottom line more than it helps theirs.

    Carlos now has 3 billionaire cheerleaders, but he has pissed off 300,000 little people..Nobody remembers a one time tax break of $20 but they do see the daily lack of public services he has cut in order to give away the millions in tax subsidies.

    I don’t see this poll as a validation of Regalado as much as an indictment of Gimenez’s policies

  5. Any candidate that runs against Carlos Gimenez is worth my vote. Gimenez should be in prison, along with Katherine Fernandez Rundle, Esteban Bovo and Al Lorenzo for the absentee ballot fraud they concocted in 2012. Carlos Gimenez should also be in prison for the theft of millions in county contracts given to Garcia Toledo and a cast of unsavory characters. A vote for Gimenez is a vote for corruption, graft and the destruction of our county. Look at the list of contributors just published by the Herald. From Big Sugar to Genting to developers, the rat otherwise known as Carlos Gimenez has cornered the market on influence peddling.

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