The news really isn’t that this poll done by congressional candidate Carlos “Crybaby” Curbelo showed the Miami-Dade School Board member up by 
four points against Democrat U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia in what was supposed to be (more of that later) a high-profile national race.
The news is really that it was just four points. Ladra expected it wider.
Never you mind about the blah blah blah coming from the Democratic Party and Joe’s own people on registration drives and how many more young Democrats they’ve recruited. These are not the people who vote. Performance, not registration, is what counts. And history. And math.
We don’t need no stinkin’ poll when you do the math.
Republicans outnumber Democrats among the people who always vote, those who campaign insiders call “supervoters” because they vote all the time, no matter what, come hell or high water. In 2010, which is a similar midterm gubernatorial election, there were just over 50,000 Democrat supervoters in District 26. There were a little more than 66,000 Republican supervoters. That is a 16,000 vote deficit.
For some reason, the Democrats do not look as concerned as Ladra thinks they should be.
Read related story: Joe Garcia opens back to back campaign offices in high drive
While the Democrats like to say they will win a lot of the 26,000 supervoter NPA or independent voters to their side, they need three out of four. That’s more than a lot. That’s a whole lot.
Democrats also like to think that they continue to ride the Obama wave of 2012, but that also didn’t work for them in 2010 following their 2008 high. Midterm elections just historically belong to the GOP.
At least Curbelo released the poll results this time. He kept a primary poll secret. This poll was shared with the Miami Herald by the Curbelo campaign. Or at least some of the poll results wer
e. It shows a 44 to 40 percent Curbelo advantage — that becomes negligible with the 4.9 percent error margin — which grows to a 51-38 percent advantage among voters who have “seen, read or heard something” about the absentee ballot fraud investigation into Garcia’s campaign, and the arrest and conviction of his short term chief of staff and longtime confidant Jeffery “No Relation” Garcia.
Read related story: Carlos Curbelo keeps poll secret in FL26 race for Congress
What the poll really does is (a) show us how the Curbelo campaign is going to be centered on linking Garcia to the investigation, which has now expanded into Jeff Garcia’s planting of a ringer in the 2010 Republican primary; and (b) give Curbelo cover for his own ethical issues, exposed right here, related to his company being in his wife’s name so he can avoid disclosing his client list publicly.
DC-based GOP pollster Jim McLaughlin told the Herald that the Garcia camp and Democrats are only hounding Curbelo on his client list faux pas to distract from the investigations into Garcia’s own campaigns. But McLaughlin must be forgetting that it was Ladra, an NPA, who uncovered this convenient little loophole que tiene Carlitos. And that it became a big issue during the primary, when Curbelo’s fellow Republicans questioned him on it.
Read related story: Carlos Curbelo hides lobbying client list under wife’s skirt
Maybe I forgot a (C) — which is that it gives Curbelo more time to stall and decline to release a client list and register his company under his own name like a big boy would, and especially a big boy running for Congress.
His people won’t talk to Ladra. His spokesman said he would call me back. We’re still waiting.
But the other side is talking.
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Big news: Carlos Curbelo leads in poll. Duh! Do the math added by Ladra on
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How much does anyone wanna bet that whoever conducted this poll didn’t ask anyone living in the southern part of the district like Palmetto Bay or even the upper Keys like Tavernier or Islamorada? If they would have conducted this poll in those areas, the results would have been different. With all the mud-slinging and “who’s more corrupt” accusations by both campaigns, whoever is hated the least is going to win.
Rep Joe Garcia has great commercials on the air. They seemed to be focused on women.
Curbelo has his issues to worry about. His lack of leadership, or leadership in the wrong direction, as a School Board member is glaring. I think he put his friends, ideology and Party ahead of students.
Joe Garcia has the issue of Jeff Garcia, something that won’t die off not even in 100 years. But, the reality is that Joe Garcia is not implicated, Jeff Garcia is.
I suspect that Joe has earned enough respect from the community because he has been a very good representative and , even as a freshman, achieved some leadership on Hispanic and immigration issues. He may pull this off.
Too bad that both candidates are going with a dirty campaign. Dirty campaigns work.
MacDougall was not the runner up. Ladra you also got it wrong. Joe Martinez came in second with less than $100,000 in campaign funding and a group of individuals that volunteered their time and effort for the best candidate. The write-in candidate is JOE MARTINEZ!
I wonder if that poll takes into consideration the 53% of Republican voters who did not vote for Curbelo in the primary? That 53% disgusted with the GOP’s Ileana, the Balarts, Jeb and Romney for sticking their noses and endorsing Curbelo in the primary? In addition they endorsed the least qualified candidate of the 5 candidates running. They know that’s a no no, but I guess they needed a puppet. The word out there is that there is going to be a write-in for the runner up, MacDougall. I guess the GOP needs to be taught a lesson or they will continue choosing our candidates.