Days after former Congressman David “Nine Lives” Rivera jumped into the Congressional Republican primary for District 
26, Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo — the establishment choice from months earlier — did a poll that cost him $35,000.
And why haven’t we heard a peep about it?
Curbelo did not return a phone call to his cell phone Sunday. Like the other candidates the week before absentee ballots drop, Ladra is certain he is out there knocking on doors and visiting community centers or events.
But I am also quite certain that the reason the poll is being kept under wraps is because Curbelo doesn’t come out too well — or at least, not as well as he would like. It is highly unusual that a perceived establishment front runner would not be sharing his 10-point or whatever lead with the media. Especially in one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.
Read related story: First congressional primary debate a dud
The poll was conducted by New York-based McLaughlin And Associates — who, by the way, also predicted that House Speaker 
Eric Cantor would win by a landslide. Like Curbelo, he was the establishment favorite and better funded than Republican economics professor, Dave Brat, a tea-party darling with a strong grass roots street game and pulled out a win by 10 points.
McLaughlin — which also conducted a poll for Curbelo almost exactly a year ago for $12,000, was paid for the new $35,000 poll on June 10, according to Federal Election Commission reports filed this month. A day later, Curbelo mentioned nada about a new poll when he was quoted in the Miami Herald as saying that he had full confidence in the firm even though they had botched the Cantor numbers by 45 points.
Last year, Curbelo shouted about that old poll from all the rooftops because 
it showed him edging in on Congressman Joe Garcia and a point over him among those who had heard about the U.S. Rep’s absentee ballot scandal. The poll conducted almost exactly a year ago, indicated that Garcia — who had defeated Rivera in 2012 when the veteran lawmaker was under investigation for federal campaign finance violations — was weakened by his own AB fraud scandal, in which his chief of staff, political consultant Jeffrey “No Relation” Garcia, was sentenced to 90 days.
No indication that Curbelo even polled against his ballot mates in the August 26 primary and maybe that was because they had not yet qualified and there could be a surprise. And surprise! Enter David Rivera. Everyone speculated what that little last minute twist did to Curbelo’s campaign, so there is no question that the poll done last month pitted the postalita against ol’ Nine Lives and, at that price, the other Republicans on the ballot. It may have also polled some of his special issues, like immigration and Common Core. After all, this is a $35,000 poll — that’s about three times the cost of the poll he publicized last year.
Which brings us back to why it’s still a secret. Why spend that kind of dough on an “internal poll” if you’re not going to use it to get contributions and votes and, at least, media brouhaha?
The only explanation is that Curbelo is bluffing his confidence and is not the front runner after all.
Read related story: David Rivera’s reasons for leaving FL26 race ring false
Even with Rivera out, there are those who think that former Commission Chairman Joe Martinez, who represented a chunk of the district at the county level, is a force to be reckoned with. And Ladra happens to think that everybody, including myself, has underestimated is the charm and appeal of Cutler Bay Mayor Ed “Mac” MacDougall, who started campaigning before anybody else. Poor Larry Palomares Starbuck is the only one who is going to end up with single digit numbers.
Ladra challenges Curbelo to make his poll public — including methodology and cross tabs — and let us all know if she’s right or wrong.
Carlos Curbelo keeps poll secret in FL26 race for Congress added by Ladra on
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I’m not going to repeat what was already said by Dr. Peters. I agree with him 100%. MacDougall went to war, was a policeman, is a successful businessman and is the Mayor of Cutler Bay. When talking about experience he has it all. Anyone that wants to know more about him, contact his office. If you don’t speak English, no problem, his son in law is hispanic. In addition, I apologize to the candidates but MacDougall and Rivera are the only ones that look like a Congressman.
This is not about nationality or hidden polls because it is not going your way this is about experience and who can get the job done. I’m sorry but Martinez has it. Oopen your eyes people get the big picture let’s not make that mistake again. We must elect someone in office that knows what he’s doing. This is not my district and I cannot vote for him but the truth is the truth.
Vote for a “Gringo” for a change, give McDougall a chance…the rest of the pack had their chance.. they suck”….
Anyone that knows the little “marioneta” Curbelo knows he would have held a press conference, had airplanes flying banners and sent email blasts had the results of the poll been favorable to him. Obviously, the numbers didn’t come back as he would have liked which, which is a good thing for the people of FL26, because I think Carlito is not the best choice.
He is so darn busy with this race that he has forgotten he holds another elected position on the school board where he spends all of his time running his campaign. He should step down and allow someone else to serve on true school board, especially if he is so confident he will win FL26.
This is a little doll that launches attack after attack about ethics, corruption and integrity and, rightfully so, but at he same time, his business dealings under his wife’s name are at least are a cause for concern.
Martinez or McDougall would both be better than this snot-nosed kid.
I can’t help but be suspicious by these “self serving” comments who are most probably recorded by those deep in the camps of those they tout.
I happen to believe when all the dust settles it will be Mr. MacDougall who will be there in the end. Forget the numbers of this and the numbers of that; it so happens he is by far the most experienced candidate any of us could send to DC.
He has a life time of public service; far beyond Martinez and Curbelo. A successful citizen, soldier, police officer, business professional and Mayor. We are past the need to send people to Washington who have been part of a popularity contest and who are learning as they go. We need to have a person who can hit the ground running; we need Ed MacDougall.
Regarding those who would try to explain victory or defeat along the lines of heritage; white v latin v etc v etc; lets give the new generations of the voting block the credit they deserve in looking at the issues and the candidates who are most able to address their concerns: the high cost of everything being prominent amongst all things.
What comes to mind is the issues affecting us most: the high cost of gas; the high cost of home owners insurance and the so many things which have ratcheted up during this democratic run. There in fact has been nothing “democratic” about it. It has cost everyone across the board. We need a higher quality of life and it starts by sending Ed MacDougall to DC.
I suppose if I was voting for County Commissioner it would be Martinez as he has the experience; if for student council president or school board it would be Curbelo—experience noted; for a seat in the US House of Representatives I want someone who can take our issues to the halls of Congress—and not only hold their own, but who will make a difference from day one. We need a statesman. The only smart vote from those who are the most intelligent is Ed MacDougall.
Word out on the pavement is Martinez is the front runner and it’s very likely that’s what the poll Curbelo spent 35 g’s on told him. He just won’t tell us though.
This guy needs a lifestyle lift to take care of that double chin and about a gallon of testosterone injected into him daily for about a month. If he wins it’s gonna look like the white version of Erkle going to DC.
Join a gym and crawl from under the skirts of the Diaz Balart’s!!!
Publicus is hilarious and correct, save for one thing.
Polling I know of in Monroe County shows that people are more drawn to Joe Martinez than any other candidate because of his prior record and experience.
I believe Joe Martinez will pull a hat trick this August 26 and win the election in both Miami-Dade AND Monroe counties!
Punch
#16
Vote
#16
David Rivera was only going to act as a spoiler in the race. He raised no money and had no endorsements. He’s “suspended” his campaign, but did not ask that his name be withdrawn from the ballot. I suspect that he and Starbuck will both poll in the single digits. McDougall should do well in the Keys among White Republicans, but that is the tail and not the dog. The GOP in District 26 is overwhelmingly Hispanic. McDougall’s only hope was to get 5 strong Hispanics in the race and to hope they evenly split the Hispanic vote. There were only 4 and Rivera dropped out and Starbuck doesn’t show up on any polling (when he does, he’s inside the margin of error). So the race becomes one between Curbelo and Martinez. Curbelo is sitting on top of about a million dollars, but a lot of it was earmarked by the donors as general election money, so he can’t spend it in the primary. It also appears that he was trying to hold on to as much of his primary money to spend in the general. That is hurting him with the likely voter in the GOP primary in D26 (a 64 year old Hispanic grandmother who doesn’t have any children in school is is not paying attention to the school board.)
Joe Martinez for Congress #16
#16 should say it all.Joe Martinez for Congress
Even if you pay over and beyond what a normal poll costs in this election if you can’t get the results to come out the way you want it to then you’re really in trouble.
Curbelo will be an “also-ran”. David Rivera made sure of that. With Rivera’s brief campaign, he stole any momentum that Curbelo should have had.
Now the election is too close for Curbelo to use any of his vast DC establishment money to catch up with.
Advantage: Joe Martinez.