More GOP votes = Carlos Curbelo could be up on Joe Garcia

Democrat Congressman Joe Garcia is going to have to do a lot better than photo ops with Charlie Crist and a questionable endorsement from a Cuban dissident who may or may not have been taken advantage of (more on that later) if he wants to be something other than a one-term legislator.

As much as word dogs like Ladra want to think that campaigns are all about the message, they are really all about the numbers. The math is all that matters at the end. And, whether Ladra likes it or not, the math gives an edge, with five days to go, to Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos “Crybaby” Curbelo, who seems to have the advantage so far looking at the numbers from the voters who have cast early voting and absentee ballots.

¡Coño!

According to figures provided by FIU Professor and pollster Dario Moreno, who has access to campaign and voter databases that give you information on who has voted so far, there are almost 7,800 more GOP voters participating as of Wednesday. Moreno reports that of the 66,000 votes cast in District 26 so far, 22,789 are cast by Democrats and 30,669 were cast by Republicans. His numbers include Monroe County, where Ladra expects Curbelo to do poorly in. But Miami-Dade numbers provided by Elections Department Deputy Supervisor Christina White show that a proportional lead: 26,270 GOP votes to 19,199 Dems.

Of course, we don’t know how they all voted and there are some Democrats who will vote red and some Republicans who might vote blue (a dog can hope, can’t she?) so that’s a wash, right? I mean each candidate has his own sordid take of corruption — Garcia with his campaign issues and Curbelo with the hiding of his lobbying clients under his wife’s name. So, it’s a wash.

Which still leaves nearly an 8,000-vote deficit for the incumbent congressman.

I’m not saying that Curbelo wins by that many votes. No, no, no, no. It’s going to be much closer. But the Republican challenger has the numbers that the expected midterm GOP momentum promised and that provides him with a little comfort room where Garcia has none.

Garcia’s camp is counting big on the Independent and NPA voters, of which 12,471 already have cast ballots (10,585 in Miami-Dade). But they need somewhere around 80% of those to get back to even.

Insiders in both campaigns told Ladra that polling and tracking show the two candidates — in what was deemed as one of the most flippable seats in the country — pretty much neck and neck at this point. But that’s been going up and down. The same insiders said that Garcia was up a few points a few months ago when Curbelo did that poll during the primary that he refused to release. Then, according to a poll that Curbelo did release last month, the challenger was up four points. Now he’s slid down, according to some sources, to within the 2-3 point margin of error.

And if the math momentum continues for the next five days in one of the most negative contests Ladra has seen in a while — look for new attacks to come out any day now — Curbelo will eek it out with not more than a few hundred votes.

And we know he can work the absentee ballots. He did very well with those in the August primary and owes his seat on the school board to ABs, having lost the Election Day vote county to Libby Perez but raking in more than 3,600 more absentee ballots than she did in 2010.

Ladra knows Republicans own the AB game and Democrats vote late. Blue numbers always tend to increase in early voting and on Election Day. But the early voting gap is not that wide at about 650 more Dems than Republicans so far. One Garcia campaigner admits that the race could very well depend on Nov. 4 turnout.

And that is why they are so invested in a “massive field operation” that Ladra says is somewhat tied to Crist’s race. The dire numbers are also one reason why you see Garcia everywhere Crist goes.

But just like Garcia’s guys expect the Independents to go to them, Curbelo’s crew knows that they only need 25% of them — or one in every four voters — to win this thing. And if they can’t do that with the $2 million plus campaign (not including PACs), then they’re doing something wrong.

Ladra doesn’t have to like it. But right now, coño, it looks like I’m going to have to chase Curbelo and his top secret lobbying client list all the way to Washington D.C.

Carlos Curbelo, Congressional district 26, Joe Garcia

More GOP votes = Carlos Curbelo could be up on Joe Garcia added by Ladra on October 30, 2014
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