A new third party poll by some independent business interest group has Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava leading in the mayoral race by a very small margin. And number two on her heels, according to sources 
who got the exact same poll results, is Commissioner Esteban Bovo.
So we may actually be looking at a hyper-partisan runoff in November between the Democratic Party darling and the only Republican in the race.
God help us all.
According to three unrelated political sources, Levine Cava got 20% of the support in the telephone poll of 400 people that started July 30 and ended 
Monday. Bovo got 19%. Former Mayor Alex Penelas got 15% and Commissioner Xavier Suarez got 10%.
Sucks for Ladra. And goes against the earlier polls that had Penelas on top and Suarez right behind him with DLC and Bovo switching for three and four. This is upside down!
But it’s not out of the question. Why? Well, for several reasons.
Bovo has been bleeding that conservative angle for a weeks now, and that base is wide open for him as the only Republican in the race. This is a state primary with partisan races on the ballot. Primaries already typically have a bigger Republican turnout. Anyone who is going to vote in one of those GOP primaries, will vote for Bovo. And he recently released a radio spot with an endorsement from Republican Miami’s beloved Sen. Marco Rubio.
Read related: Alex Penelas bashes Bovo, wins first Spanish-language mayoral debate
Meanwhile, the other three candidates will divide the Democrats and the NPAs, which should all go to the only NPA candidate, Suarez, but nobody on his team is really chasing them.
Suarez is the best candidate but he is hurt by the fact that he doesn’t have party machinery to help him and he doesn’t have a real campaign. Jose Mallea is a nice guy but he lost his own bid for state rep in a 
special election in 2017 to a lesser known guy with less money, fewer endorsements and less experience. What should have been a lightning rod movement has been stalling and puttering like a classic car that needs a tune up. What’s most memorable from the Suarez platform is that his son is Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and that he voted against the county budget and the misuse of the half cent tax dollars. There’s no real message. And there’s no momentum.
Daniella is all momentum. She is everywhere, all the time. And she is having a blast. While we can picture Penelas biting his nails, she doesn’t seem worried at all. Here she is yucking it up with poll workers and early voters at the Coral Reef Library on Wednesday. She has every single Democrat 
legislator and every single progressive group behind her, and more being announced almost daily. The Women’s March Miami endorsement was announced Wednesday. She may stumble in Spanish, but she has the cojones to try her ass off. And she has the best campaign of the big four. Christian Ulvert may not be as lovable as Mallea, and he also lost his own run for office, but he’s far more experienced and he has a more professional, cohesive team.
Levine Cava and Culvert — because this has been all him — also have more money. Almost $3.5 million between her campaign account and her Our Democracy political action committee, according to the last campaign reports filed July 31. That we know of. There’s been some dark money in this race and a mysterious 501c4 that could be helping her.
But money is not necessarily helping Penelas, who has the most of it — with $4.5 million (that we know of) raised between his campaign account and his Bold Vision PAC — and who, las malas lenguas say, has been on a downward spiral for weeks. He seems to be coming apart at the seams.
“I’m running for mayor of the county,” he told Ladra last week after his debate battle with Bovo on Cuban radio. “I’m not going to get into a little tit for tat with Steve Bovo,” Penelas said, even though he just did. “There are much more relevant and pressing issues. I’m running for mayor of the county,” he repeated, as if there was still some question.
For Miami-Dade mayor, it’s Alex Penelas vs Esteban Bovo for most corrupt award
It’s like he knows about these numbers. Ladra thought it was weird when he did a press conference to 
boast his endorsement from loan shark and corrupt Hialeah Mayor Carlos Hernandez. But now we know Penelas was just desperate to peel some votes off Bovo, which may be why he’s gone after him and basically ignored Suarez.
It didn’t work, dude. Instead, tracking shows that move may have hurt Penelas in Kendall and Westchester. So has the “defund the police” narrative. While none of the candidates has said they were in favor of taking any funding away from the police department — a false narrative brought into the Black Lives Matter protests to muddy the issue and create a distraction — only Bovo has made not doing it a focal point of his campaign. Ladra bets Bovo is gaining in Westchester, which should be Villa Suarez.
Trends in some of the county commission and house races, according to multiple consultants, also show that a bunch of new and/or atypical voters — those who don’t regularly vote in the primary and who didn’t vote in the presidential in 2016 — are returning vote-by-mail ballots at almost the same rate as high-performing voters that cast ballots every time. That could also be helping DLC while it hurts Suarez, who is running out of money, and Penelas, who could muster a last minute rally because he has the most cash on hand (more on that later).
Read related: Highlights on issues from two online, virtual Miami-Dade mayoral forums
This “independent business group” poll, which Ladra has not seen herself, also indicates that more than 
29% of the voters were still undecided. That, too, is plausible. It’s not like any one single person stands out above the rest. Notice that nobody got more than 20%. But that would also mean that the two black women — Monique Barley and Ludmilla Dommond — would take a total of only 7% or so. That seems low just by demographics. Even Fredrick Bryant, who came in fourth in 2016, got almost 9% on his own. And the ladies have run better campaigns. Ladra hopes they run again.
We will know for sure in less than two weeks, but if it turns out to be a battle between Bovo and DLC in November — which is basically Ulvert taking on the GOP — it could be a historic moment after all, with our first female mayor of Miami-Dade. Why?
Because the same thing that’s helping Bovo now could hurt him in the general election. It’s a whole different universe of voters in November — and they tend to lean blue. After all, Senator Rubio — who should perform better than Bovo any day of the week — lost Miami-Dade in 2016 by 10 points to someone named Patrick Murphy. Remember him?
Yeah. Wonder what those polls said.
Of course, this is Miami, where all politics are ethnic. And while things are getting more partisan in local races, there won’t be a D or an R next to the mayoral candidates’ names. Sometimes a surname is more important than the letter anyway. Cuban Republicans turned on Art Teele to elect Penelas the first time because they chose to vote for one of their own.
Will Cuban Democrats (los cuatro gatos) do the same thing? We’ll know in a days.
Poll has Daniella Levine Cava vs Steve Bovo in Miami-Dade mayoral runoff added by Ladra on
View all posts by Ladra →
Woman Power ,
Do not get to caught up in women are better .
Just look at Miami DA Kathleen Rundle , she looked high and low for any excuse not to pursue this case and finally the FBI stepped in ” FBI arrests Hialeah cop accused of sexual assault by four women and girls”.
If you like Cava for what she has done , policies , etc that is great but the ” woman power ” thing means you might drop your guard with people like Rundle and plenty of others .
Im a Trump supporter voting for Daniella.
We need someone who isn’t looking to build their own resume by being the First anything… We need to do better as a society to produced better qualified and more diverse candidates.
Voting for Daniella Levine for us to have our first woman mayor is a mistake. If we wanted a first woman mayor, we should all write in Katy Sorenson.
What we need right now is experience. Someone who isn’t to one extreme or another.
I’m a life long democrat but this would be a horrible outcome. Cava is too progressive and Bovo would be a nightmare! Suarez is an idiot and is just splitting the sensible vote. Alex Peneles is the only choice. Hopefully he’ll pull through like everyone is saying, he’ll wipe the floor the with Bovo in November!
Mayor Cava. About time we had a female mayor. Look at how well New Zealand is doing… And a dozen other countries run by women.
Cava winning would mean Christian Ulvert was really running the city. Cava is just the poster face.
The Dems must not think that she is capable of actual governing or ready at this point. Otherwise, Penelas wouldn’t have such a strong campaign.
They are going to pull votes from each other.
Bozo is just going to cater to Trump supporters.
God, please save us.
Christian Ulverrt losing in his election to Miami Shores Village Council is a understatement. In the April 12 election where 4 of 7 canidates would win seats on the council he tied for fourth place and in the May 3 2019 run off he finished in second being beat by Stephen Loffedro by 11 points 55.57 to 44.3.
Dello ,
” another lying liberal hack.”
As if Bovo isn’t another lying ” Conservative ” hack .
Miami has been going Democrat but NOT because of political ideology per-se but because people are tired of the same ole , career politician criminals who simply run under the banner of Republican yet they are not Republican .
You want to win races , STOP with the same flunky crooks , Run new candidates or you will never see another Republican win again.
There are no Republicans here in this high property tax , zero accountability city and Bovo is no exception .
This truly is the city of flunky politicos who bounce from one office to another as they line their pockets .
X has spent his time promoting Francis. no thank you
Xavier Suarez is clueless and a idiot. He runs a TV commercial with the majority of the air time focused on his son Francis. The commercial does not really have a message and the most Miami-Dade County hates Francis Suarez.
XXX- You get three X’s. You are out!
Vote for Cava? A leftist operative whose platform only includes doing things for Afro-Americans even though that segment of the community represents only 20% of our County? Please. All of her hate-brained ideas would cost the middle class plenty in additional taxes. Affirmative Action and Section 8 already do plenty for the Afro-American community. She can take her BLM rhetoric elsewhere. Bovo may be a boletero but at least he respects law enforcement and will not turn this County into another Chicago or yet worse Portland. Rather vote for a crook than a communist any day.
Sorry ! I don’t Trust Cava some of that Money is Tainted from People W/ County Contracts TOO ! We get this County Commissioners that Sponsor anything and Them Will Take the Credit? Our County Government is “CORRUPT ” ?
As a resident of the rather nebulous “unincorporated” Miami-Dade County, it seems County races are the nearest thing to a local race for me. I have been aware of Levine-Cava’s abilities long enough to be confident of her ability to excel in the leadership role as County Mayor. Some of the other candidates are re-treads and like all such, have too much baggage for me. I happily endorse Daniella Levine-Cava and look forward to her election.
Ladra,
Name the polls and who sponsored them. We all know the political operatives are working tirelessly to spin this in favor of their candidates.
According to my sources and their polls, Penelas has a commanding lead. Daniella and Esteban are second and third. Their likability personality is to be desired. One might say, they are one of the same. All talk, no action. Name one thing they have accomplished?
Oy vey…
Both will wreck the economy…
Both are too cheap and spread resources too thin. Neither pay their workforce a decent wage unless the worker can hold political ammunition over their head.
Bovo will be horrible for public workers & departments by slashing budgets and cutting funding… He can’t even manage his office budget to be able to afford to pay his employees decent wages or the benefits packages that other BCC staffers are entitled to. He is already too much of a puppet for Trump. He just wants to play Mayor to impress the Trump boys.
Cava will expand services and run workers into the ground. At Human Services Coalition, she had state violations for working her employees too much and not paying overtime which is why they had to rename the organization to Catalyst. She has a long history of being successful off of the backs of volunteers, interns (especially interns), undocumented residents, and the poor. She will try to do the same at county hall. Her inability to manage will lead to lots of gridlock in county departments.
Cava was best friends with crooked Hillary. Bovo looks like one of those old guys from the muppets.
Interesting how Daniella owes her career to the PBA who got her elected, and now, they have endorsed Bovo (he’s not going to like the funding it takes to keep them as friends).
Suarez has always adored Daniella. He will likely endorse her in a runoff.
Penelas needs to do better at his opposition research.
Bozo is the worst. Another corrupt fool.
One other note: Suarez is a buffoon, just like his son. Enough with these tired, retread career politicians. The arrogance of this guy to think that voters in Miami would be cool with a father-son duo running the City and the County at the same time. He’s not entirely wrong to think that, it seems, given he’s running a viable race.
To me, his whole candidacy is mind-blowing. I mean, we are “banana republic” ish, already – but if the voters actually agreed to that… well, then, it would be nigh indisputable at that point.
If you actually think Cuban Democrats are going to vote for Trump bootlicker ghoul Bovo simply because he’s Cuban, please pass whatever blunt it is you’re smoking, because that has to be some good “-ish”…
What sets Cava apart is she doesn’t seem to want to be mayor just to be “The Mayor” as some do. They fit their agenda to whatever demographics they think will land them the gig.. Daniella wants to get things DONE and was frustrated early on by dysfunctionally of the BCC plus a veto.
I’m not sure she will find the mayor’s gig is any less frustrating for other reasons (herding cats?) but if she wins while these emergency executive powers are still in place, watch out, sh*T will get done.
I would vote for Miami-Dade Commissioner Daniella Cava over the corrupt Commissioner Steve Bovo for Miami-Dade Mayor anyday and I’m a registered Republican .If you ever met Daniella Cava like I did she listens and is very astute in how she handles things .She would make a great Mayor of Miami-Dade County in my opinion. Commissioner Cava really needs to talk about making sure all public records request are honored in a timely manner and with integrity .That’s not happening now and I have proof of that personally !
Dems and Progressives are supporting her… that says it all and does it for me –another lying liberal hack. She’s a good listener…just like the rest that continue to bamboozle the uninformed herd for their vote.
Not surprised about Suarez – he’s always had a “build it and they will come” attitude and refuses to sudar la gota gorda.
Not surprised about Penelas – they are still plenty of us who haven’t forgotten the half-penny hoodwink.
Spot on! Let me adjust on the Fredrick Bryant: He was not polling as high as 9%. His vote was almost entirely out of Miami Gardens, which there is also has a contested election again and particularly for District 1 County Commission. Watch for surprises (again!).
Insightful, as always. Your perspective is greatly appreciated.
DLC is the uplifting, considerate and positive candidate, with a natural talent for coalescing support among the most politically aware, which portends competent leadership for the county. She manages to be direct and succinct in her communications, efficient in her use of resources and commanding in her sense of priorities. That confidence is reassuring in troubled times.
Those numbers look right….
Unless, some journalist does a public records request to find county business in her gmail account….
Then it would be the 2016 emails drama all over again and seal the deal for Bovo which would be awful…