The cases of COVID19 infections continue to rise in Florida and Miami-Dade as the coronavirus is, reportedly, just getting started here. These dramatic increases are a result of more massive testing and are going to continue for the next couple of weeks, or 
months, depending on the expert. Either way, it ain’t over yet, folks.
Not even close.
And while people might be thinking that our social distancing — on Wednesday, Day 10 — isn’t working, everyone needs to know that it only works with time. So, no, Caro, you don’t have to go out to Publix right now just to get away from abuela for a couple of hours. Go to the backyard with your phone and order from Instacart or Amazon Fresh.
Ladra is sharing this important perspective from Jonathan Smith, an award-winning lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics and he is an affiliate of the Yale Global Health Leadership Institute and founding director of Visual Epidemiology, a non-profit organization seeking to combine academic discourse with personal narratives through filmmaking.
In other words, he knows what he is talking about. He is not a politician or a talking head on TV. He is a scientist.
A Short Explanation by Jonathan Smith, Yale University
Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks.
Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn’t have to. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying around you. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they
are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine, this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in a grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
Um, yeah. Sobering.
So while the governor of Texas might be willing to die to save the economy for his grandchildren, and wants other grandpas to follow along, this disease can still get the best of us. We are in its very infancy. Experts say Greater Miami is a couple of weeks behind New York City, which is a couple of weeks behind Italy, were 743 people just died in one day.
We need to listen to the scientists this time. This is not a drill. This is not a dress rehearsal.
This is our future.
Epidemiologist explains why social distancing is #1 weapon vs COVID19 added by Ladra on
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Doctors are stating the majority of the ones dying: diabetic and/or obese
sounds like country wide diet change is in order.
LHM…I found this link and looks like this might be the source…see what you think.
https://elemental.medium.com/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17
I got it originally as a forwarded email. I spoke to Jonathan Smith and he said that it had gone so far because people were forwarding his email and those people were forwarding it that someone suggested he publish it on medium.
Share the information with anyone you can. And stay safe.
Love, Ladra
Link to the oringinal post
https://elemental.medium.com/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17
Ladra, I was unable to find the original source of Jonathan’s article/post. Can you provide a link? E.g. to his blog or Yale website, or wherever it was initially published?
Thanks!
If anyone is going to believe a conspiracy theory, here’s one for you: Trump himself manufactured this to stir things up so insanely and for so long that the US election ends up being delayed and he gets to stay in office longer without having to deal with the possibility that there are people out there who might VOTE against him. He is tremendously, bigly genius, after all, and almost godlike in his vast ability to “know things.”
please, do not stop taking your meds.
It’s a vastly unknown area. But if one thinks it has been here six months or a year, Miami-Dade’s Health Dept. Would have registered an uptick in respiratory illnesses episodes, because the Health system, Doctors, Clinics, Hospitals track incidences of the Flu.
Tony and Dawn,
I actually never heard of Ft. Gordon but like everyone else know of Polk .
IMO there really is no best source . It’s just a matter of which theory you agree with but yes Wuhan , China does have a bio lab .
” China’s only Level 4 microbiology lab that is equipped to handle deadly coronaviruses, called the National Biosafety Laboratory, is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”
or
”Scientists have found a 96 percent genetic match between the virus that’s currently infecting humans and a coronavirus that is found in bats, according to a study published in Nature in February.”
And plenty of other theories .
However if you are right , we will never know the truth by any President as that would require serious pay back towards China and that is not going to happen .
Sensible people don’t hypothesize out-of-field. When we wore the uniform, we were better fed in Gordon than in Polk,We read a blog in Al Jazeera , Al Jazeera, and as you should well know, look at how the one in front of the line does, and then you do it. Needless to say, We Google sars- corona virus-2, and pick the best sources.
Tony and Dawn ,
I agree that its not 100 percent that it is from bats but think that is the general scientific theory . I would think the virus has been here for 6 months to a year before we heard of it .
I base this on the theory that the Chinese government told us only when they could no longer hide it so who knows how long it was already here .
Who knows maybe Mayor Gimenez himself and his entourage who we paid for his China ” business ” trip spread it .
To Jose: officially it’s not yet known which animal transmitted the virus to humans. The virus exists in a bat species, but bats bite. From an old paperboy to a reporter, don’t spend too much time on long winded descriptions, they could be seeking notoriety. My father did some journalism, so I have a little on the job training. Just read that in Washington State, laboratoristas estimate that Covid-19 had been around for six weeks before it was detected. But we know that there’s are asymptomatic cases, and mild cases that can mimic a bout of cold. My point is that we don’t need to be waiting for a cascade effect.
Jackson Rip Holmes,
Lol plenty of Veterans do not trust the shadow men ( CIA ) nor ” our ” government but speaking only for myself I genuinely think this is due to eating bats .
Some of the most outlandish conspiracy theories often come from us be it right or left leaning Vets , 13B here .
Guess when you serve you truly do open your eyes to a lot of things .Especially in combat or just being over seas . You are no longer naive and leery of all governments , politicians .
I agree with you 100 percent ” There are far more deaths due to the common flu. The death rate is still being determined, but as an example, yesterday’s US CDC has Coronavirus death rate at .0123, vs flu death rate iof .01.”
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Donna Shelley,
I understand your point but look up the deaths in the USA alone off the CDC site as far as the common flu last year .
I myself think lots of hysteria and yes I would go to a crowded theater or an airplane BUT I would not go near elderly people till a vaccine and feel if people over a certain age want to stay home with government pay that I wouldn’t get , that is fine with me …
Just would add to the Jackson Rip Holmes comment that COVID-19 is more virulent than other flu viruses because it is a NEW virus for which many people have no defense. Kind of like Small Pox being introduced to indigenous populations. The impact is swift and often deadly. I get inoculated for the flu every year. Many don’t and die (harsh, but true). Currently, there is no vaccine for COVID-19, so we are all extremely vulnerable.
I would ask if President Trump and Jackson Rip Holmes are willing to: go to a crowded theater, attend a crowded church, or ride on an airplane packed with people to prove that the economy is more important than the lives of others. I’ll wait…
Respectfully, two problems with your expert’s offering:
1. There is plenty of evidence Coronavirus is an inside job. Here is but one exposition of same.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/24/pravda-us-army-created-covid-19-in-2015-research-proofs-or-debunking-you-pick/
2. President Trump is right in two respects:
A. There are far more deaths due to the common flu. The death rate is still being determined, but as an example, yesterday’s US CDC has Coronavirus death rate at .0123, vs flu death rate iof .01.
B. NOT HAVING AN INCOME TO PAY RENT EQUALS BECOMING HOMELESS, AND EVENTUALLY BEING UNABLE TO BUY FOOD, FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN CORONACVIRUS SUPER FLU!!!
So will you Please — I beg you, — publish my comment ala the 1st Amendment, Dear Angel?
I respect your opinion, but please get the facts straight. The current death rate in the United States of COVID 19 is around 2% and rising. The death rate of the flu is around .01% The death rate of COVID 19 is running around 200 times higher than the flu.
um… you may want to check YOUR sources.
flu has killed way way more.