Eileen Higgins makes history leading special county race against the odds

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Political newby heads into runoff with Zoraida Barreiro

Gringa political virgin Eileen Higgins either waged a very good campaign or voters in Miami Beach, downtown, Brickell and Little Havana are tired of the same ol’, same ol’. Or maybe a little magic formula of both those things.

Because Higgins pulled a rabbit out of her hat Tuesday with an amazing upset, not just squeaking into a runoff as Ladra had predicted, but beating the front runner by two whole points in a special shotgun wedding election for Miami-Dade Commission that everyone expected her to lose, albeit respectfully, within a couple of points. She goes into Round 2 against Zoraida Barreiro, who everyone expected to win, in part because she is the wife of the last commissioner in District 5.

Higgins still has a runoff to go but she won Round 1 with 35% of the vote, ahead of Barreiro with 33%. Former State Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla was six points under that with 27%. Carlos Garin was irrelevant, as expected, with 5%.

Pobrecito Alex. He has now lost three comeback bids (State House in 2012, Senate last year and now county). He was always running for No. 2 in this District 5 commission race, because Barreiro — the wife of a 20-year incumbent — always had the advantage. Still, Ladra bets it hurts him to get beat by someone named Eileen Higgins who has only been in Miami for four or five years.

Maybe ADLP — who got no love from any notable Republicans and late nods from Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos “Mr. Giveaway” Gimenez and Miami Commissioner Crazy Joe Carollo — will get the message: Nobody wants you back in office. Well, nobody except maybe the misguided Miami Herald. In the background is where you win. Sometimes. Stay there.

Read related: Absentee ballots fly in hurried, special District 5 county commission race

It was over as soon as the absentee ballots were posted and Diaz de la Portilla showed a scant 179-vote lead on Higgins. There was no way he could sustain that tiny margin through early voting and election day numbers, which tuned out to be more lopsided than anyone expected. While Higgins actually held pretty solid with the ABs for a newby virgin Dem trailing not too far behind, she socked it to both Barreiro and ADLP in early voting — with 720 votes against Zory’s 651 and DLP’s 282 — and election day, getting more than double both the legacy candidates with 1,208 votes to her 582 and his 547.

Maybe both Diaz de la Portilla and Barreiro bored voters with their negative attacks on each other, leaving Higgins to reap the disillusioned.

Higgins hit a couple of times, too, but not as ugly. Ladra expects the runoff to be negative mailer free, which would be another surprise, huh? I suspect Higgins will go back to and strengthen the very solid grassroots campaign that got her here. Ladra is pretty sure she knocked on more doors than both dynasty wannabes combined. Even Republican super voters who didn’t get a visit from any other candidate. And they told me they voted for her.

Add to that the super support of local and state Democrats — including gubernatorial candidate and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum — as well as most of the labor unions. All that leads to this win against two sorta incumbents with dynasty names and much more money. Higgins raised just over $50,300 by Friday. Zoraida had raised $180,000 between her campaign account and her PACs and and ADLP had reported raising $92,150 in his account and who knows how much in his PAC, Proven Leadership for Miami-Dade County, which has yet to report a single contribution or expense.

Read related: Another shady PAC attacks Zoraida Barreiro in county commission race

“She was very underestimated. She’s done a lot of activism that people don’t know about,” said Maggie Fernandez, an activist and campaign volunteer, referring to affordable housing and anti-violence groups that Higgins has worked with. “She’s been on boards in downtown neighborhood associations. She’s networked. But she’s not the kind of person who seeks the limelight.”

What makes the temporary victory Tuesday more amazing — and likely more sweet — is that it didn’t happen over a three or four month period. It happened in four weeks. And in a special shotgun wedding election orchestrated to benefit the wife of former Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who really didn’t have to make his resignation effective immediately but did because Republicans with political machines do very well in special elections. And it may still turn out to have been good move, depending on what happens in the runoff.

But guess who has the momentum now.

“We took a newcomer who is passionate about issues and deeply involved in the community and that is why she was able to put together the right resources in a short amount of time,” said Christian Ulvert, a Democratic political operative whose team worked on Higgins’ campaign. “We targeted the right voters. It was a turn-out game.”

And that included Republicans, because Ladra knows quite a few who broke with the party — even though this is a non partisan race, it is sorta not — and Cuban-Americans who broke with tradicion to vote for la gringa Democrata.

“The stronghold Republicans had in Miami-Dade County is about to be gone,” Ulvert told Ladra.

True dat. This is the third special election — which used to be a gift to the GOP — in six months won by the blue team. It comes on the heels of wins by Democrat Sen. Annette Taddeo (finally) against a state GOP giant like Jose Felix “Pepi” Diaz (who beat ADLP, too) and lobbyist Javier Fernandez, who slayed Andrew Vargas, the handpicked proxy of former State Rep. and U.S. Ambassador Carlos Trujillo.

Read related: Dems push full court press for Eileen Higgins in special District 5 county race

But Ladra is not so sure it was as anti-Republican as it was anti-incumbent — because both Barreiro and ADLP seem like incumbents, don’t they — and anti-dynasty. The first mail piece that dropped in the special election was a Higgins piece against political dynasties. Sure, it linked the two Republican candidates to president Donald Trump. But that’s not just a Democrat message.

“Tonight, voters showed that they are ready for fresh leadership and a new vision,” said Higgins, who gathered with her supporters to celebrate at a gastropub in Brickell. “The residents of District 5 rejected status quo politics and are ready to elect a champion who will fight for a transit system that works, combat sea level rise with a plan and delivers on affordable housing initiatives.

“I’m ready to work harder to earn the votes of District 5 residents as we gear up for the June 19th election,” she said, because there is a runoff less than a month away and Higgins is again — despite the short-lived victory Tuesday — the underdog. Barreiro came up short by only 156 votes and Higgins was still rejected by 65% of the vote and just how many more anti-dynasty votes can she squeeze out of infrequent voters in a second special election in 28 days? That’s the question.

Then again, Hillary Clinton won this District by 30 points. If the Dems keep making this non partisan race a symbolic part of the blue wave — and Ulvert said he had every intention of making this a referendum on Donald Trump — Higgins could do it again in four weeks.

“We just double down on what we just did,” Ulvert said. “It’s about rejecting the status quo politics as usual, the politicians who promise but don’t deliver results,” he said. “She’s an opportunity for change.”

Well, she’s sorta already done that.

  Alex Diaz de la Portilla, Eileen Higgins, Zoraida Barreiro