Poll: In congressional race to replace Frederica Wilson, voters still shopping

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The political establishment has spoken. The endorsements have been handed out. The campaign checks have been cashed. The consultants have been paid.

And after all that, more than a third of Democratic voters in Congressional District 24 are still saying, “Meh.”

A new St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics shows what is shaping up to be a two-man contest to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, with Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert leading state Sen. Shevrin Jones by a razor-thin margin — 27% to 24%.

That’s well within the poll’s 5.6% margin of error, which means the only thing anyone can confidently say is that nobody has this race locked down.

Not even close.

Read related: Frederica Wilson passes the torch to Oliver Gilbert in CD24 replacement race

Gilbert is Wilson’s chosen successor, and he has assembled what looks like the Democratic establishment’s dream team. The longtime congresswoman endorsed him before she even packed up her Capitol Hill office. Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava quickly followed suit. And the money? It’s pouring in.

Gilbert has already raised more than a half-million dollars in just a few weeks and spent more than $300,000 trying to convince voters he’s the heir apparent.

Jones, meanwhile, isn’t exactly running a shoestring operation.

The state senator has rolled out endorsements from elected officials across Miami-Dade and Broward — labor unions, Equality PAC, and a long list of Democratic heavyweights, including former Miami-Dade Commissioners Betty Ferguson and Barbara Jordan. Just this week, his campaign announced endorsements from former Miami Gardens Vice Mayor Aaron Campbell and four former council members of the municipality where Gilbert was mayor from 2012 to 2020. That’s not nothing.

Team Jones also says it has made more than 50,000 voter contacts and mobilized hundreds of volunteers.

So, everybody who gets paid to talk about politics knows these two are the front-runners.

The voters? They’re still making up their minds.

A whopping 36% remain undecided, which may be the most important number in the entire poll. That’s not just a lot of undecided voters. That’s a giant flashing neon sign that says this race hasn’t really begun.

Or perhaps that the campaigns haven’t yet given voters a compelling reason to choose.

Read related: Frederica Wilson drops the mic = North Miami-Dade’s musical chairs begins

Then there’s Kendrick Meek Jr.

The son of former Congressman Kendrick Meek has amassed nearly half a million dollars and, unlike most candidates, hasn’t spent it all trying to impress consultants. He enters the second half of the race with the healthiest bank account in the field, thanks in part to endorsements from former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Miami Heat legend Alonzo Mourning.

So far, though, money in the bank hasn’t translated into votes in the poll, where Meek sits just shy of 10%.

And then there’s Dr. Rudolph Moise. If campaign spending alone elected members of Congress, someone would already be measuring the drapes in Washington.

Moise has poured nearly $447,000 of his own money into his campaign and spent more than $555,000 overall — more than any other candidate in the race.

The return on investment? Just over 1% support.

Ouch.

Marshall Davis, Jean Monestime and Roderick Vereen — who really should have waited and run for state attorney again — also remain well back in the pack.

The poll also offers a few clues about where the battle lines are forming.

Jones performs better with younger voters and narrowly leads among voters under 50. Gilbert’s strength comes from older Democrats, particularly those 50 and over — a voting bloc that also tends to show up on Election Day.

That could matter. A lot.

For now, however, the race to succeed Wilson remains exactly what it looked like the day she announced her retirement: wide open.

The insiders may already have picked their favorites.

The voters apparently haven’t.

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