Miami-Dade District 5 poll spells runoff: Eileen Higgins vs Renier DLP

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The smart money is on a November runoff in Miami-Dade District 5 between incumbent Commissioner Eileen Higgins and retread has-been Renier Diaz de la Portilla, thanks to Miguel Soliman.

While Soliman filed before Diaz de la Portilla, the youngest brother of the political dynasty has enviable name recognition and is expected to beat Soliman handily, according to a poll from the Higgins camp that also puts her comfortably ahead of both. But the former Miami-Dade School Board member and State Rep has lost at least two elections since — one for State Rep in 2012 and another for judge in 2014. This would be his third try to be relevant again.

Big brother and Miami City Commissioner Alex Diaz de la Portilla — who is running the campaign, as always, and will likely run the district, too, if Renier pulls it off — is not even fooling himself when he says “Reni” wins on Aug. 18. He claims to have his own poll, which he would not share with Ladra, that has Baby DLP with 54% of the people who have voted already and, he said in a text message Sunday, 68% of the voters in the district have voted.

Then why is Renier so angry all the time?

Read related: Renier Diaz de la Portilla files to run against Eileen Higgins in Miami-Dade

It is worth noting that the internal RDLP “poll” information came in a text message. Ladra hasn’t seen the poll and ADLP — who has a penchant for exaggeration — would share no details. Nothing on the number of undecideds or how many votes went to Soliman (pictured). Nothing on the date(s) of the poll or the number of people called or the demographics of the voters called. Nothing on nothing. Ladra asked for these details. “Nope,” ADLP texted.

So his confidence could be pretend and those numbers may be made up.

According to actual statistics from the elections department, less than 50% of the ballots countywide have been returned and more Democrats voting so far than Republicans. And while this is a non-partisan race (in theory, not in practice), Ladra highly doubts that RDLP — whose best and only job since being a state rep was as public defender for wife beaters — has a lot of Democrat support. Sounds more like desperate lies to manipulate what’s left of the election.

Meanwhile, Ladra did obtain the details of a July 2o poll of 300 August primary voters in the district done by the Higgins campaign. That internal survey shows that Higgins has 42% of the vote, while RDLP has 25% and Soliman has 15%. About 18% of the voters questioned were still undecided.

This could portend a tight runoff if the Soliman votes are all anti-Higgins votes that Diaz de la Portilla could gain. But some Soliman votes are from the supporters of former county Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, who is running for State Rep in an overlapping district (more on that later). And they are not going to vote for any DLP, not after Alex trashed Zoraida Barreiro in the District 5 race in 2018.

Read related: Another shady PAC attacks Zoraida Barreiro in county commission race

The Higgins campaign has been working to repress the voter turnout for Renier since Day 1. Her TV commercials, her mailers, almost every piece she has done is an attack on RDLP. Even her positive pieces have a little jab in them. It’s a smart tactic. Her July poll shows Diaz de la Portilla with 30% unfavorables, while Higgins has 11% unfavorables (though that seems low).

The attacks have gone back and forth, but the best mailer so far this whole year is one from Higgins campaign that is fashioned after The Godfather movie poster with Renier cast as Fredo and Alex cast as Sonny. It’s a classic for any collector. Especially since that one of the DLPs favorite movies and Alex had a poster hanging in his dining room for years. Don’t know if the designer knew this or if it was just serendipity.

Meanwhile, Diaz de la Portilla’s attacks also seem aimed at Republicans and Hispanics, which one would think he would already have. They call Higgins a communist and the theme is “elect one of our own.” But because Democrats are not likely to fall for those tired, old smears, the message seems aimed at NPAs.

The desperate attacks don’t reflect a winning poll. Neither does Renier’s angry, menacing demeanor.

Anyone who saw last week’s debate sponsored by the Brickell Homeowners Association and the Urban Core Community Coalition could see that Diaz de la Portilla’s was about to burst out of his one-size-too-small suit like The Hulk. He is practically foaming at the mouth.

“The reason I’m running is I can do better than the incumbent because I was born here,” he said, summarizing the gist of the campaign message.

He called her a Gimenez rubber-stamper and criticized the way she has prioritized spending of the federal CARES funding to mitigate the COVID-19 expenses and economic impact on relief for taxi drivers and big businesses or connected nonprofits instead of mom and pop shops.

His closing statement was really aggressive.

Read related: Renier Diaz de la Portilla and brothers get with negative mystery attack mailer

“Bottom line: Born, raised, educated and from this community, I am the best representative for this community on the county commission. I grew up a mile away from Brickell, hanging out at the four ambassadors, jogging along the bay,” Diaz de la Portilla said. “I know this community better than my opponent does and who better to represent the community than somebody who knows the community.

“I won’t allow any more trust funds to be created and misspent, I will address the homeless issue in downtown and in Brickell and I will fight for our community with experience and knowledge and professionalism as a lawyer of almost 20 years,” he said, before his time was up, then added a little angrily: “I don’t need the endorsement of anybody.”

Ooooh. He must be hurt that he didn’t get one.

But even though that was his closing statement, it wasn’t the last time we heard from Angry Reni.

Higgins started giving her closing statement by promising to listen to both sides of every issue. “But I will be making values-based decisions that I think are in the best interest of the residents of Miami-Dade County and District 5,” she said.

“And I will never enrich myself nor any member of my family while making those decisions.”

That must have prompted RDLP to interrupt her. “‘Scuse me. Did you hear me? Did you hear my closing…” he goes on but the host of the debate muted him. They had to mute him. They could mute him. We won’t be able to do that if he becomes a commissioner.

And he sure didn’t sound like he was winning.

  Alex Diaz de la Portilla, Eileen Higgins, Miami-Dade Commission races, polls, Renier Diaz de la Portilla