New poll: Dolphins stadium side moving their ball forward

• Tweet
• Sumo

• Tweet

A new poll of 2,000 likely voters done for a local television station shows that the owner of the Miami Dolphins has gained double digit support for his plan to use public funding to roof and renovate his private stadium.

Disapproval for the deal to provide more than $289 million in bed tax dollars and $90 million in state sales tax rebates has dropped ten points, from 73 percent in a poll done by FIU Professor Dario Moreno two months ago to 63 percent in a survey done last week by Armando Ibarra for TeleMiami.

This is worrisome — and expected — at the same time.

Expected because the Dolphins have nowhere to go but up. Moreno told me last week that their gain is predictable, since they are the only ones doing any kind of outreach. They’ve sent mailers, they’ve done phone banks and they have at least one ad airing on Cuban radio.

It looks like they are convincing people.

Ibarra is pretty sure the referendum will still fail. “The Dolphins’ proposal is even more unpopular than the proposed Expressway Authority toll increases, legalizing casinos in Miami or raising county water and sewer fees,” he said. Nearly 63 percent said they were against granting public funds to private companies to stimulate economic development. Only 50 percent said they were against the toll hikes. And fewer, 46 percent, said they were against casinos.

And those who support the stadium outright, about 22 percent of those surveyed, show the proposal today would be voted down by a 3 to 1 margin, he said.

“There is very limited room to build support for the proposal,” he said. “Only 15 percent of likey voters are undecided on the issue.

Still, the Dolphins and their alleged concessions are gaining yardage. From 73 percent against to 63 percent is 10 points. They just need 13 points more in the next two weeks. If they only get half of the undecideds and continue to rush the field, they may make their 50 percent plus one.

Ladra thought they would see this as good news. But Miami First Coalition spokesman Eric Jotkoff blew the findings off.

“Considering the person who released this poll has no record of being a pollster and the company’s website literally has nothing on it, this poll is clearly a joke. Anyone who thinks this poll is credible is simply fooling themselves,” Jotkoff said. “As voters across Miami-Dade have learned about the unprecedented partnership to modernize Sun Life Stadium and create over 4,000 jobs, our support continues to grow.

“We are confident that on May 14th, Miami-Dade residents will speak loudly when they vote for modernizing Sun Life Stadium.”

Well, if you don’t like the message, the messenger is fair game, I guess. But Ibarra, whose Coral Gables firm does strategic and corporate development research, has done polls for at least two years. He has worked for the county, he said, and did a poll last year for the presidential primary for Newt Gingrich and a poll in Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Shultz district.’

“I’ve been polling at the county level on a monthly basis for two years,” said Ibarra, who will come out with numbers later this week on the mayoral race in Miami.

“It’s mostly for private clients, not for public or publishing,” said the MIT graduate. He is not some comemierda from down the block. And he thinks they don’t like the poll because his methodology was different — and, therefore, more credible — than the Dolphins.

And the other poll was done with a smaller universe of registered voters, while Ibarra’s survey called only the likely voters — 4s and 5s who vote in nearly every election. He has a 2.2% margin of error.

And if Jotkoff expects a yes win May 14, they may have to work harder. And in Spanish: Hispanics lean more against the referendum than white Anglo voters in Ibarra’s poll.

Interestingly enough, opposition to the deal went up to 65 percent when voters were asked if they were more likely or less likely to vote for the Dolphins proposal if they knew “they would receive $289 million in trax dollars thorughout a 26 year period by an increase in tourist room taxes.”

Which means, again, that the anti-stadium forces are not doing enough to get their message out. And I can’t help but wonder if the hike in no votes would be higher if they said that it’s really $379 million in tax dollars.

Another interesting note is that the Dolphins stadium proposal is less popular, with 22 percent supporting, than Gov. Rick Scott, who has a 24 percent approval rating.

Note to the guv’s campaign team: A veto here — once the bill passes in the House, which Ladra predicts — could help those approval ratings go up.