It’s here. The Aug. 20 election, which includes many county races and some partisan primaries, ends today.
More than 200,000 people have already voted either by mail or absentee ballot or in early voting. There’s a slight edge among Democrats, but Republicans narrowed the gap during early voting and now there’s just about 5,000 ballots between them.
It will be over for some in just a few hours. And it’s an excruciating wait.
Starting at 7:30 p.m. — polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday — Ladra will be hitting refresh like a junkie on a morphine drip. There are some very important positions and questions on the ballot.
One of the most important decisions are the Democrat and Republican choices for the sheriff’s race in the November general. Miami-Dade Chief of Public Safety James Reyes is going to win the blue contest. He may not be the most qualified candidate for sheriff, but he’s arguably the best among the Dems. And he’s got the mayor’s puppet strings, er, I mean support behind him.
Read related: New poll: Miami-Dade sheriff GOP race has Sanchez, Cordero-Stutz on top
He’s likely going to run against either Trooper Joe Sanchez, a former Miami City commissioner who has wildly exaggerated his experience at the Florida Highway Patrol and could be politically compromised, or Assistant Miami-Dade Police Director Rosanna “Rosie” Cordero-Stutz, a veteran of the department touting Donald Trump’s endorsement whose campaign is run by Tania Gimenez, the daughter-in-law of Congressman Carlos Gimenez, and her lobbyist husband Carlos “CJ” Gimenez.
Former Miami-Dade Commissioner Joe Martinez, who was suspended in 2022 after an arrest on public corruption charges, sent an email blast to all Miami-Dade employees on Monday that seemed like a concession speech. “As I sit down to write this message, I’m reminded of the incredible journey we’ve shared,” Martinez wrote, thanking is Miami-Dade family. “As we move forward, let’s continue to support one another.”
It sounds like he knows he’s not winning. And, while he has reportedly climbed in the polls, the solid leaders are Sanchez and Cordero-Stutz. Even Jose Aragu, the major of the Midwest Station who got $300K from hedge fund giant Ken Griffin, is going to come in fourth or fifth.
Of the two front runners, Cordero-Stutz is the most qualified.
Sure, okay, she currently lives in Broward County. Miami-Dade is unaffordable. But Cordero-Stutz has worked in Miami-Dade for her entire career, nearly three decades, rising up the ranks to become basically No. 2. She has a tremendous amount of education, including FBI leadership training. She is on the transition team, so she knows what this important move means more than most. She has the respect of the rank and file in the department (unlike Sanchez).
And wouldn’t it be great to have a woman become the first Miami-Dade Sheriff in nearly 60 years? Especially against 10 men?
Read related: Democrat elections chief candidate Willis Howard has a shady slate card
Ladra doesn’t want our new sheriff to owe the Gimenez family a favor, but Cordero-Stutz doesn’t seem like someone who would compromise her ethics. Maybe it’s the Broward water.
Cordero-Stutz will have to walk back, somewhat, the Trump endorsement she obviously needed to make it this far. But she is the only one who can beat Reyes, if you put their experience side by side. If Sanchez wins, lots of people might have to hold her nose and vote for the prison guard in November.
In the first ever race for Miami-Dade tax collector, we only have a Republican primary. Dariel Fernandez is poised to beat Hialeah Councilman Bryan Calvo, who is running against the entire Hialeah and Republican establishment. But it doesn’t really matter because former state rep and Miami Beach Commissioner David Richardson is winning in November.
In the race for supervisor of election, it’s the other way around. State Rep. Alina Garcia is the Republican nominee with no primary. She will probably face JC Planas, because the former Republican state rep is more qualified, even though longtime campaign consultant and political operative Willis Howard has put up a good fight. A third candidate, Arnie Benjamin Weiss, won’t come close.
Most recently, Howard mailed the shady slate card he’s been handing out at early voting.
Howard, who filed his latest expense report late, is misguiding voters into thinking it’s an official Democrat Party slate card. But he also endorses Republicans Roberto “Rob” Gonzalez for Miami-Dade Commission and Mary Blanco for Miami-Dade School Board, both of whom were appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Voters will finally have their say in both those seats.
Bryan Paz-Hernandez, a former Dem activist running as an NPA, thinks there’s going to be a runoff because of the third candidate, or plantidate, Claudia Rainville. But is that wishful thinking? Paz-Hernandez has certainly done a lot of walking and door-knocking and residents don’t really know Gonzalez — or know only enough not to like him. So there’s a chance. But Ladra feels this will be a disappointment.
Read related: Political Cortadito makes some easy recommendations for the Aug. 20 ballot
In the school board race, Blanco recently sent out yet another mailer with endorsements, this time from DeSantis, Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez and Sen. Marco Rubio. Former principal Javier “Javi” Perez and former teacher turned tech executive Maxeme “Max” Tuchman might end up splitting the anti-appointee vote and giving Blanco a win.
The Miami-Dade Commission District 7 race has been one of the nastiest, with negative text messages from either incumbent Raquel Regalado‘s camp or former Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner‘s campaign almost daily for about week. This rematch is going to be tight. Regalado won in 2020 by only 1,300 votes and she’s made some enemies with her votes to develop the Calusa golf course and to move the Urban Development Boundary for a warehouse project.
But this time around, Regalado — whose dad, former Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado, is running for property appraiser — also has the quiet support of Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, who has been having joint events with Regalado on county initiatives, and the loud support of ZooMiami spokesman and all around environmental nice guy Ron Magill, who credits Regalado with killing the Miami Wilds project that could have compromised endangered species right adjacent to the zoo.
There’s also a third candidate, Richard Praschnik, a community council member who appears in public records to claim a homestead exemption on a house in Lee County and has been campaigning in his Miami-Dade Schools Police uniform. He knows he can’t win, so he’s in there just to force a run-off. One has to wonder if Lerner’s people planted him there.
Another plantidate, Alian Collazo in the state house Republican primary for District 115, is going to lose to Miami-Dade Fire Rescue Capt. Omar Blanco, a true community leader that has been active in politics through his role as former president of the firefighters union. Collazo, who only registered to vote in Miami-Dade in February — and at the home of his friend and one-time boss Sen. Alexis Calatayud — used to live in Tampa and magically found $50,000 to loan himself last month, even though his financial disclosure showed no sign of those assets. Of course, he is backed by former and disgraced Sen. Frank Artiles, who is facing a criminal trial in September over his paying another plantidate in the 2022 state senate race in District 37.
Whoever wins this will likely win in November. Congrats, State Rep. Blanco.
And congratulations to all the people who voted. It looks like it could be a small turnout so every vote really counts. Again, polls close at 7 p.m.
Observations and predictions for Miami-Dade’s Election Day (round 1) added by Ladra on
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