Promised 'blue wave' ends up being a little splash in State House races

Qualifying came and went quietly last month and we ended up with quite a few challenges in the Florida House and some interesting contests in four of the five open seats. But nothing like what we were promised.

There is no huge blue wave in sight, folks. More like a sky blue splash.

To begin with, State Rep. Jose Oliva is the only Republican incumbent in South Florida without a challenger. He should have been the first targeted. Reps. Kionne McGhee, Barbara Watson, Richard Stark, Sharon Pritchett, Shevron Dion Jones, Joe Geller and Evan Jenne were also automatically re-elected without opposition, but they are Democrats in areas that are already dark blue.

There are a couple of head-to-heads. Rep. Holly Raschein (R-Key Largo) will face Steve Friedman and Rep. Robert Asencio (D-West Kendall) has a rematch, of sorts, with Anthony Rodriguez, who lost the Republican primary two years ago to former State Rep. David Rivera (who never qualified for State House 119 this year as he had threatened to, either). In another rematch in House 112, Rep. Nicholas Duran (D-Shenandoah) will face Republican Rosy Palomino again. And, next door, newly elected Rep. Javier Fernandez (D-Coral Gables) will face a guy with a similar name, Republican Javier Enriquez. Someone named Ahmed Rizwan is challenging Rep. Bryan Avila (R-Hialeah), but nobody is watching that.

And all those contests are in November, anyway, more than four months away.

In August, we have some big, fat primary ballots due to termed out reps that leave open seat opportunities that nobody wants to pass up.

In 115, where Ladra lives, we have two Democrats and four Republicans vying for former State Rep. Michael Bileca‘s seat. Jeffrey Solomon (photographed, left) will probably and should win against someone named James Schulman. This is Doc Solomon’s third or fourth run at the seat — he’s not afraid of running against an incumbent — so he is like the incumbent this time and everybody knows his name. Among the Republicans, it will either be GOP favorite Vance Aloupis or Jose Fernandez, the only two who have dropped any mail so far. Carlos Gobel and Rhonda Rebman Lopez, who dropped the Rebman from her name to sound more Hispanic and has loaned herself almost $100,000 (more on that later), are still silent but could make moves in the next couple of weeks. This seat is totally flipable. One of the five most vulnerable House seats in Miami-Dade.

Not so much so in 119, where Jeanette Nuñez exits right, and we have another four Republicans, but only one Democrat and one NPA. So, in August, we will see the battle between Juan Fernandez-Barquin, Enrique Lopez, Analeen “Annie” Martinez — daughter of Miami-Dade Commissioner Joe Martinez, (photographed with her, right) which could be why she has quite a bit of a fundraising lead (more on that later) — and Bibiana “Bibi” Potestad. The winner there, like Ladra just said, will likely take it in November because Democrat Heath Rassner seems like he doesn’t know what he’s doing, having first filed in HD 5 in the panhandle and having lost already once in the 116 race to former State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz. NPA Daniel Sotelo, however, has raised $24,455 so far and could be a factor — especially if Martinez wins and Sotelo makes the whole general campaign about dynasties. We know that works.

Democrats could gain one in District 103, which covers Miami Lakes and Hialeah Gardens and is vacated by Manny Diaz, Jr., a charter school no-show employee and quarry mining industry sellout who thinks he can win a senate race now (more on that later). Diaz and Oliva handpicked Miami Lakes Councilman and Oliva Cigars employee Frank Mingo to replace him. But there’s a primary with Cindy Polo, a stay at home mom inspired to run after the school shooting at Parkland against Richard Tapia, who dropped out of the Miami-Dade School Board race against the mayor’s sister-in-law after he met with CJ Gimenez, who discouraged him. Ladra can’t help but wonder if someone is encouraging him now. This is only flipable if Polo wins and yes it’s flipable (more on this race later).

The blue team could have scored again in Ambassador Carlos Trujillo‘s former district in Doral — but instead they fumbled another one. Doral Councilwoman Ana Maria Rodriguez (photographed left) is running as the sole Republican after King Nine Lives Rivera himself decided not to throw his hat in the ring this year — and it’s the first time since when that David is not on the ballot? Rodriguez, who has remained unscathed during the mud bath in Doral, is a worthy opponent even in one of the most flipable seats. Especially since the primary pits Ross Hancock, who has run in so many districts already that he hasn’t been able to build a base, against Javier Estevez, who has raised less than $1,700 since September of last year. Dems in Doral have voted for Ana Maria before. They won’t mind doing so again. This seat likely stays red. And it could have gone blue with the right candidate. The Miami-Dade Democratic Party really blew it. Again.

On the flip side of that, House District 113 — which became open when David Richardson decided he had enough of butting heads in Tallahassee and he would try to ride his first gay elected thing to Washington — has three Democrats and only one Republican who is wasting his time, because whoever wins this race in August is the next state rep. That means it’s either one of two former Miami Beach Commissioners Deede Weithorn and Michael Grieco the comeback kid, who got off probation for campaign law violations in his 2017 mayoral bid just in time to run, or “Kubs” Lalchandani, an attorney for plastic surgery centers where botched procedures have led to patient deaths whose real name is Kabir Arjan. Like Ladra said, whoever wins that primary is going to win in November say the demographics, so Republican Jonathan Parker is irrelevant. This seat will stay blue forever.

Interestingly enough, there are also a couple of incumbents facing challenges from their own party:

Newly-elected State Rep. Daniel Anthony Perez (R-Westchester) — who beat Jose Mallea and some Republican lady from Broward for the seat in a special election last summer, after Jose Felix Diaz resigned to run for senate (and lost) — will face tax attorney Frank Polo, a balsero from the 1994 crisis who spent 10 months at the refugee camps for Cuban rafters at Guantanamo. That’s a GOP leaning district so whoever wins that will likely easily beat Democrat James Alexander Harden. Another lost opportunity for the blue team, who should have had a player here.

On the blue side, State Rep. Roy Hardemon faces two Democrat challengers in the primary — Joseph Beauvil and Dotie Joseph. There’s an LPF in that race also but this is a solid Democrat district. Republicans need not apply, and they didn’t.

And in 109, we have two Democrats longtime and well-known Democrats battling it out: Former State Rep. James Bush III hasn’t been able to win even a seat on the United Teachers of Dade board, so what makes him think he can beat Cedric McMinn, a political climber who worked as district assistant to State Rep. Cynthia Stafford in this very district before he became chief of staff to Miami-Dade School Board Member Dr. Dorothy Bendross-Mindingall. This election is going to be run and decided by educators (and educational interests?) so it may be worth watching.

But that was a blue seat that will stay blue. At the end of the day, the Democrats really didn’t come through with that promised blue wave — at least not in the Florida House. They could have flipped four or five seats (if you count Raschein) and will be lucky if they get even two. Let’s call it what it is: a blue trickle.

Florida House, Jose Oliva, Miami-Dade Democrats

Promised ‘blue wave’ ends up being a little splash in State House races added by Ladra on July 5, 2018
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