There are a whopping 25 candidates running for one of seven Miami-Dade County commission seats. That’s more people than you can have at a summer camp this year. With five termed-out posts, this election is a potential sea change that could alter the whole culture at County Hall.
Maybe. Because 
most of the presumed frontrunners are already old hats.
Here’s who qualified Tuesday by the noon deadline and what the races might look like:
District 1 will see one of only two head-to-head contests: Miami Gardens Mayor Oliver Gilbert against Sabrina Denise Fulton, Treyvon Martin‘s mom, who has endorsements from Hillary Clinton and Cory Booker and could be a sleeper candidate, especially in light of the most recent Black Lives Matter protests against police brutality in the wake of the murder of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis Police Officer (now ex police officer) Derek Chauvin. This race will not only have national attention, due to Fulton’s media role as the poster mom for black boys, it could be close. This will be a great race to watch, especially since we get the reveal in August.
District 3 is the biggest smorgasbord of several packed races, with one prominent has-been kicking the butts of five wannabes vying for Chairwoman Audrey Edmonson‘s seat. This commissioner represents voters in downtown 
Miami, Liberty City, Little Haiti, Overtown, the Upper East Side, Edgewater, Buena Vista, Allapattah and Wynwood. The presumed frontrunner is Miami Commissioner Keon Hardemon (who has more than $300K in his campaign account, not including the two political action committees run by his lobbyist aunt). The other five are Brian Dennis, Monister Lee-Kinsler, Eddie Lewis, Tisa McGhee and Gepsie Metellus, who, collectively, have raised $130,000. Other than Lewis, who has run for office multiple times, the rest of the names are not commonly known. The only thing they might do is force Hardemon into a very lopsided runoff. And maybe. This race is no fun to watch. Unless you’re counting (or spending) Keon’s money.
District 5 — from Coconut Grove and Little Havana to Brickell and Miami Beach — is not a termed-out seat, but it’s also kind of an open seat because incumbent Commissioner Eileen Higgins (photo) was elected two years ago in a special election 
to replace Bruno Barreiro, who had resigned to run for Congress. She is unliked even by those who voted for her and she faces two challengers: Onetime Miami commission candidate Miguel Soliman and another, and regrettably stronger contestant, former State Rep. and Miami-Dade School Board Member Renier Díaz de la Portilla, the youngest in the legislative dynasty who is really a stand-in for Miami Commissioner Alex Díaz de la Portilla, who ran against and lost against Higgins (and Zoraida Barreiro) in 2018. This will be an ugly race. Bet. Already, the DLP brothers have shown that they will run a divisive campaign. “From Miami, For Miami” is their tag line because Higgins is a transplant. It reminds Ladra of one of The Dean DLP’s old campaign slogans, “Cubano vota cubano.” In fact, Ladra thinks it’s what they’re low key saying.
District 7 — which covers parts of Coral Gables, South Miami, Pinecrest and Kendall — is suddenly a four-way after Kendall activist Michael Rosenberg surprised everyone a couple of weeks ago and jumped into the race, a little late, 
but like he planned it that way. It would have been five, if former Miami Commissioner Marc Sarnoff, who reportedly did well in an exploratory poll, wasn’t talked out of running by his law firm because of conflicts. Everyone likes Mike but Ladra wonders if he can build consensus. He is a little inflexible at times. Because he’s always right! And he’s in on the controversial Calusa golf course deal with developers who would build 500-some homes, which more homeowners than not think is a betrayal of their trust. Not a good start when your own neighbors will vote against you. There’s also a former police officer named Rafael “Ralph” Suarez, but it’s not a good time to be a cop running for office. And then there’s the two women, who really are the most experienced and expected front runners, former State Rep. and Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner and former School Board Member and onetime mayoral candidate Raquel Regalado. Both are powerhouse women and either would make a good commissioner in Ladra’s own district. All Mike has done is delay the head-to-head until November. Again, maybe. Rosenberg and Lerner — who are already bickering on Twitter — may divide the same pool of voters giving Regalado a bigger lead on both of them. This race makes Ladra wish there were live debates during this campaign.
In District 9, the largest geographic district representing folks along the U.S. 1 corridor from Cutler Bay to the Monroe County line, we have another clusterbunch with five candidates, all of whom are arguably strong contenders with a 
base of supporters in their own right. Many people think this seat, vacated by Commissioner Dennis Moss, will automatically go to State Rep. Kionne McGhee (photo), who has the incumbent’s support. But attorney and activist Marlon Hill has “incumbent money” with $300K in the bank, more than anyone by far. And hunky Homestead Councilman Elvis Maldonado, a tall, charismatic Puerto Rican (who had to move his residence to qualify) threw his hat in the ring last fall. And local pastor Mark Coats has been campaigning since 2018, calling thousands of voters himself in the past couple of months while they were all hunkered down during the COVID19 stay-at-home order. Smart. And former Community Council Member and longtime South Dade activist Johnny Farias, who everyone underestimates, has been campaigning forever on one thing or another and is an overachieving underdog with a small but ardent cult-like following. This race is expected to stay clean, on the issues — and, therefore, under the radar. Ladra will be watching, though. It’s going to be interesting.
District 11 Commissioner Joe Martínez, representing most of West Kendall and the Hammocks, etc., has two 
challengers (but that’s a strong word): State Rep. Robert Asencio and someone named Christhian David Mancera Mejía, who really needs to shorten his name or we won’t be able to see it on yard signs. Neither one is a real threat. Martínez (photo) is a little brash but he is beloved in his district. That’s why he’s back after leaving to run for Congress and losing, serving now as one of the few voices of reason on the county dais. Asencio should have stayed in the Florida House. This race looks like a snoozer. You likely won’t read a lot about it here. Ladra expects Joe to win in August. Comfortably.
And in District 13, which represents most of Hialeah, Hialeah Gardens and Miami Lakes, former Sen. René García almost became a defacto county commissioner on Tuesday — except Adrian Jesús Jiménez, filed in the 
morning. Ladra likely jinxed it. I congratulated García (photo) a little early, before Jiménez’s filing was posted online but after the noon deadline. But it hardly matters. This seems like an exercise in futility. Or an opportunity for campaign consultants. Because Jiménez, who nobody has ever heard of, has raised $100 since March. García, a legislative media darling and expert on health care and charter school issues, has raised $178,000. He still has $100K to spend. There won’t be a lot to write about this race either. Because Ladra stands by her premature kudos. Congrats René.
So, if you read between the lines, Ladra pretty much thinks we are going to have commissioners Martínez, García and Hardemon for the next four years, so get used to it. The other ones might be more of a contest, but there are favorites and these will be the races that Ladra will spend most of her time on. There’s a lot to look into, including 25 financial disclosures and campaign reports which will be bedside reading for the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned.
No matter what, we will have at least five new commissioners, possibly six, and a seventh after the special election to replace Daniella Levine-Cava next year (if the commission has one and if DLC doesn’t run herself and win).
Ladra will be covering these races pretty closely. In fact, I think we should start a fantasy county commission game. We pick our “team” of new commissioners and score points on their campaign wins and lose points on blunders. We can trade until August if we lose faith in our picks and find a player willing to trade. The winner is the one with the most commissioners elected in November. Who’s in? DM me.
Miami-Dade Commission candidates qualify for 2020 overhaul election added by Ladra on
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