There could be a perfectly good reason why Miami-Dade Commissioner Esteban Bovo hasn’t officially announced his bid for county mayor in 2020: Because he may not run, after all.
Despite raising more than $1.1 million for his political action committee, Transportation Solutions for Miami-Dade, Bovo has likely done or seen polls that show he can’t win a countywide race.
To make matters worse, las malas lenguas say Bovo, who needs all of Hialeah to stand even a tiny chance, doesn’t have the support of Hialeah Mayor Carlos Hernandez in his bid to succeed Miami Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez. Hernandez is supporting Bovo’s stepson, Oscar de la Rosa, in a Hialeah commission race as a consolation prize.
We know Bovo doesn’t have the support of former mayor Julio Robaina, 
whose business associates have contributed at least $100,000 to the political action committee for former county mayor Alex Penelas.
Penelas, an infamous Democrat, is also extremely popular in blood red Hialeah, a Republican stronghold where he started his political career as a councilman in 1987 and served until becoming a county commissioner in 1990. And, again, Hialeah is all Bovo has. He needs it. If he must split the City of Retrogress with Penelas, he is not viable because he does not have a countywide base.
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Bovo hasn’t officially announced and at first declined to answer phone calls and multiple messages asking this specific question over the two weeks since Commissioner Xavier Suarez officially filed Aug. 23 and Ladra started asking him about it. He replied to texts about the $9 billion county budget. He replied to texts about the mayor’s PR trip to the Bahama. But he specifically declined to reply to multiple text messages about his mayoral aspirations, either to confirm or deny the rumors. Until Monday.
“You have bad sources,” he said. Then went back to radio silence. No expansion. No word on when he might announce a run.
Pero por supuesto he is going to stay ambivalent. Bovo wants to keep raising money as if he is running so he can use it when he shifts gears to a run for mayor in Hialeah in 2021, when Hernandez is termed out. Bovo started his political career in Hialeah, too, serving as a councilman from 2000 to 2008. He may have to run against Isis Garcia-Martinez or former State Rep. Eddy Gonzalez — both rumored for years to covet the seat — but he could more easily beat either one of them in his base than Penelas or Suarez or Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava countywide.
The other option is Tallahassee. The former state rep — Bovo resigned before the 
end of his first term in 2011 to run for county commission — could return to the House because Speaker Jose Oliva, elected in a special election to replace Bovo, is termed out next year. He might have to fight Councilwoman Vivian Casáls-Muñoz for that, because she has indicated interest. That could be harder for him because she, too, is popular within the same base.
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He could also run for state Senate if Manny Diaz Jr., who works for Academica, is tapped as president at Miami Dade College in a search that has turned into political patronage.
Those are both district seats in his narrow niche base that he could carry with a strong campaign — y maybe — but he just doesn’t have countywide appeal. At least here he’d be a front runner, which he ain’t in the 2020 mayoral race.
And Miami-Dade is well known for its political musical chairs.
Esteban Bovo’s 2020 mayoral dreams doomed via Alex Penelas added by Ladra on
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