Even before 7 a.m. Tuesday, 4,287 voters had cast absentee ballots in the Coral Gables election. That’s almost 55% of the 7,835 ABs that were sent out.
That’s the highest number of mail-in ballots returned in the City Beautiful in at least 10 years, maybe all of history. And more may arrive Tuesday.
But while the city generally has a higher turnout on Election Day, a 90 percent chance of rain with thunderstorms predicted for Tuesday threatens to keep voters away from the polls this year, making those mail-in votes even more important than ever.
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Especially in the mayor’s race, which is a rematch of a contest lost by 187 votes 
two years ago and may be close again.
Incumbent Raul Valdes-Fauli, who only treats people well the two months he campaigns, beat former Commissioner Jeannett Slesnick in both mail-in and Election Day votes, but the day-of margin was smaller (15).
“We are really working on the absentees this time as that is where I fell short last time,” Slesnick said Monday evening. She said the rain is likely to fall between noon and 4 p.m., which are not peak voting times.
Still, both mayoral campaigns are offering voters rides to the polls. Slesnick put her personal cellphone number (305-975-8158) on all her emails and materials and says people can call her if they need help getting to vote.
Valdes-Fauli’s latest campaign finance report shows a $5,500 expense for “Election Day operations” to Bridge 305, which could be for transportation.
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A total of 8,416 people voted in the 2017 election, the highest turnout in the past decade. In 2015, it was 7,084 (3,770 absentee), in 2013 it was 7,047 (2,807 and in 2011, it was 7,922.
Back in 2001, when Valdes-Fauli was voted out of office the first time, 10,271 people voted. But Ladra bets it was a sunny day.
Four candidates are competing for the commission seat vacated by 
Commissioner Frank Quesada, who is not seeking a second term. They are former Commissioner Ralph Cabrera, attorney and homestead exemption cheat Jorge Fors, interim city manager and compulsive liar Carmen Olazabal and Jackson “Rip” Holmes.
“I’m absolutely concerned with tomorrow’s weather,” Cabrera said late Monday night. “Don’t know the impact it will have on turnout. However, traditionally, it has reduced turnout by as much as half.”
Read related: Ralph Cabrera set to enter runoff with campaign cash advantage
Cabrera has reason to be concerned. He has traditionally done much better on Election Day than he has with mail-in ballots.
But, rain or shine, none of the four commission candidates are likely to take 50% plus one so there will likely be a runoff on April 23 between the two highest vote-getters (read: Cabrera and someone else).
Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Rain threatens Gables turnout as voters choose mayor, commissioner added by Ladra on
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