GOP voters in House 114 slam dunk Jose Pazos and pick Andrew Vargas

It was a slam dunk with the absentee ballots.

As soon as the mail-in votes were counted for the Republican primary in House District 114, Andrew Vargas — an insurance attorney who is the law partner of State Rep. Carlos Trujillo — was celebrating a victory with 76% of them. Jose Pazos, a Marine who runs a condo management firm, knew he lost. It ended up 75-25, but really, at this point, does it matter?

So there is nothing indicating any AB fraud in the Vargas campaign, run by Steve Marin and Alex Miranda (former chief of staff to Democrat Philip Levine when he was Miami Beach mayor). It looks like they just had a good strategy made possible by lots and lots of campaign cash — at least $190,000 as of Feb. 15, compared to Pazos $30k.

It’s hard to say that money didn’t make the difference, since Vargas had quite a bit more promotion in the weeks leading up to the AB drop: at least six mailers, three phone banks and canvassers who swept the absentee voters in the district — twice. In comparison, Pazos had one mailer, one phone bank and canvassers maybe contacted AB voters once. Maybe.

One of the mailers which went to all AB voters for Vargas is this one with newly-minted Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who is popular in the District. So much so, they mailed it twice.

“Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is with Andrew Vargas,” said one side. “Andrew Vargas has, among his qualities, the integrity and leadership that the residents of District 114 deserve. I look forward to working with him to help our communities,” it quoted Suarez on the other side.

Home. Run.

If one really wanted to split hairs, one could say that Trujillo and Suarez won this election. Because if you asked Pepe Voter six weeks ago who Andrew Vargas was they might have guessed. “Un reggeatonero? El cura? Tu tio? El hijo del presidente de Paraguay?” He is relatively new and unknown in the district. In fact, Vargas was the GOP pick to succeed State Rep. Jeannette Nunez, who is termed out, in District 119 where he has roots, but switched to 114 as soon as Daisy Baez resigned for non residency and lying about it — some would say he had his bags packed before she signed on the dotted line and that Trujillo kept putting the pressure on Baez to resign (which was the right thing to do). Vargas still has to campaign, starting tomorrow probably, because this is just to fill Baez’ vacancy until November. So he just wanted the advantage of an incubency won during a low turnout special election.

And, of course, he still has to beat Democrat lobbyist Javier Fernandez May 1. That might prove more difficult than beating Pazos in a swing district that is turning bluer and in the Trump backlash timezone. And Ladra and some other political observers believe that Vargas may have a harder time against Fernandez than Pazos would have. He’s already been blamed for the attack ads that started against the Dem even before the primary was over.

A series of emails and robocalls that Ladra has not seen or heard, but were reported in the Miami Herald, are made to look like they ame from Fernandez himself. “My name is Javier Fernandez, but my friends call me Javi “Lobby.” I’m a lobbyist who’s represented casinos, out-of-state developers, professional sports franchises, and, yes, retail sex toy shops,” the email states.

It is distributed by a brand new political actiona committee, People for a Progressive Florida, but Hernandez has blamed Vargas… and c’mon! Pazos couldn’t even raise enough money for his own campaign!

Hernandez, who has demanded a debate to counter the claims, is likely to bring up the fact that Vargas is the second most litigious attorney in the state when it comes to “assignment of benefits” lawsuits against insurance companies, which legislators have said are increasingly fraudulent and which are arguably driving the cost of homeowner insurance up (more on that later).. Ladra can see the mailers now: “You pay more insurance because of this guy,” with an arrow pointing to Vargas. “He wants you to pay even more,” reads the other side.

Hey, he drew first blood.

There are about 34,000 Republicans registered in the District. Only 4,488 voters cast ballots in this race (overseas and provisional ballots still have to be counted but won’t make one iota of a difference).. Because Republicans aren’t that adamant about voting unless it’s against a Democrat. More will come out in May. But they will be joined by about as many Democrats and about as many Independents, who are likely going to be a deciding factor.

Which means only one thing for certain: Vargas is going to spend a lot more money.

Andrew Vargas, House Seat 114, Javier Fernandez, Jose Pazos

GOP voters in House 114 slam dunk Jose Pazos and pick Andrew Vargas added by Ladra on February 21, 2018
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