Miami-Dade mayor's PAC's campaign million - in context

King Carlos II has already amassed a $1 million war chest to defend his kingdom.

With 16 months to go until the election, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos “Mr. Giveaway” Gimenez has reported collecting $1 million with his political action committee, Miami-Dade Residents First.

Sure, it’s a huge amount. But it’s no surprise. Not really. Gimenez is not only an incumbent, but he’s a mayor who spent $2.3 million in his 2012 re-election campaign, between his candidate account and his PAC.

And he’s the top county administrator giving away the farm to every special interest he can — that always helps bring in campaign contribution checks. I mean, just look at the number of checks coming from people and firms that do business with the county.

His $1,004,000 is meant to intimidate any would-be challengers, including School Board Member Raquel Regalado, who is the only one that has declared her intention to run for the seat in 2016.

Regalado has only collected a little over $83,000 since announcing two months ago and is getting a little flack from observers and pundits who claim she can’t raise the funds that she needs for this mayoral take down.

But let’s look closer and consider, shall we:

Serving Miamians, which is Regalado’s PAC, has about $100,000 more in the bank, including $91,000 raised in the last two months.The PAC has spent half a million since 2013 and, sure, it serves both the daughter and her father, Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado. But guess who’s going to be the priority right now?
Raquel Regalado has $83,000 in hard money. That means maximum checks of $1,000. Gimenez has zero in hard money. All his contributions are soft money.
And they’re waning. The April report for Residents First reported $124,000 — a lot less than the $500,000 he drummed up in January. Is Gimenez reaching his ceiling? Maybe his fundraier, Brian Goldmeier. has harassed everyone in his rolodex already? Twice?
Regalado’s reports lists 341 contributors while the mayor’s PAC’s million was collected in 296 increments, many of $5,000 and $10,000, and a few of $15,000 apiece. So, that’s 45 more supporters than what he’s got.
Even if someone bundles $30K or 50K or 100K to the mayor, the person or business usually represents no more than one or two, or maybe a maximum 10 votes.
Many of Gimenez’s contributions come from people who already do business with the county or want to do business with the county, like Odebrecht and Genting and Pinnacle Housing and CH2M Hill. Those are investors, not supporters. I don’t think the Malaysian owners of Genting or the CH2M Hill folks from Colorado will vote in Miami-Dade this August.
Some of those same big firms will donate to Regalado — but later, like eight months or so from now, when they start hedging their bets.

Regalado definitely has to up her game a little bit if she wants to have the cash on hand she will need to get her message across — or, really, to counter his expected barrage of half truths and misrepresentations. But she doesn’t have to get it all right now. What do they say about guerra anunciada? Exactly.

She also doesn’t need to have as much money as Gimenez does.

“That’s not what my campaign is about. I’m not going to play that game because I’m not going to win that game,” she said, basically conceding that Gimenez will raise more money.

But she will connect with more voters. She is out there all the time, reaching out especially to those communities that are not as familiar with her (think extreme north and south). She is on the radio every day, talking about myriad community issues on her daily show on La Poderosa 670 AM.

Carlos II doesn’t go anywhere — well, except maybe Paris and Rome. Lately, he’s stepped up his public appearances, but he doesn’t do as much as she does. He sends his people, sometimes. But of the five events Regalado attended last weekend, Gimenez sent people to two. Three other events didn’t even get a stand-in.

And then there’s this little reminder: Gimenez beat former Hialeah Mayor Julio Robaina for the position in the special recall election of 2011 — even though Robaina outspent him 3 to 1.

So, all Regalado has to raise is about a third of what the mayor raises. It’s pretty likely she can do that.

Ladra has heard this race in the context of a dejavu — only this time, Gimenez is Robaina and Regalado is the underdog.

And look how that worked out for them.

campaign financing, Carlos Gimenez, Raquel Regalado

Miami-Dade mayor’s PAC’s campaign million — in context added by Ladra on May 14, 2015
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