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that the demographics were mirrored after historic trends among likely August voters.
“I don’t care what everybody in the county thinks. I want to know what August voters think,” Regalado said. This is not her first time at the circus.
So, make no mistake: Gimenez — who had basically taken another term for granted — is less cocky today than he was last month or last week or maybe yesterday. He and his cohorts all know that this poll, even if it is as flawed as the haters claim, is very bad news if, this far out into the election cycle, he is getting under 50% for job performance approval and way under
50% for if the county is headed in the right direction. That’s probably why his peeps were a little more shrill and catty today.
It was no surprise to Ladra that 77% of the 600 people who responded to the poll oppose the decision by Gimenez to give away public dollars to the owners of the Miami Dolphins and Miami Heat. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that 56% of the people think the county commission is doing a poor or mediocre job.
And while the tiny gap may have raised eyebrows — particularly since Gimenez enjoyed a 54% favorable rating in a Knight Foundation poll right around budget time — Barry University political science Professor Sean Foreman said he wasn’t entirely surprised with the mayor’s low numbers.
Read related story: Poll: Mayor Carlos Gimenez is too comfy close to lobbyists
“He has taken hits in the media on a number of different issues. It’s not like he’s untouchable,” Foreman told Ladra. 
“It’s been a rough term in office for him and he’s had bruising budget battles that created enemies — the union workers, the library advocates, the Pet’s Trust people. You add all these audiences and you are going to find favorable opposition out there.”
Foreman noted that the 31 percent of the people who were undecided would likely go with the incumbent unless Regalado is able to expand her reach across the county. “Raquel Regalado is largely unknown to a majority of county voters,” he said. The poll is a far cry from a funeral for Gimenez, but still something to concern him, the professor added.
“He still has a clean reputation. I haven’t seen accusations of mismanagement. People just don’t like the job he’s done and that could be his Achilles heal,” Foreman said. “If people don’t think he’s doing a good job, they’re not going to return him to another term.”
Other observers note the demographic breakdown. Regalado does better with Hispanic voters and Gimenez does better with anglos and blacks. So the election may turn on how whether Gimenez is able to peel Hspanic voters, who never really liked him that much anyway, from Regalado or if the woman who could become Miami-Dade’s first female mayor could find a way to easily appeal to the anglo and black segments of the population, where Gimenez support may be wide but not necessarily deep.
So, Gimenez is vulnerable. That is one point of the poll. Well, Ladra could have told you that and, in fact, has been telling you that. The other, more important point is that Regalado, who has a nine-point lead over Suarez in the poll, is a strong contender. I could have told you that, too.
Sixty percent of the respondents rated the job done by the Miami-Dade School Board as excellent or good. 
They trust the School Board twice as much with their tax dollars as they trust the county. Almost three times as many think the School Board is doing a better job than the county.
Sure, this could be more a reflection of Superintendent Alberto Carvalho‘s popularity than Regalado’s own job performance rating. But Regalado can ride that, too.
On the question of whether or not her leadership on the courthouse tax referendum — Regalado led the charge to kill it — made someone more or less likely to vote for her, only 34% said yes. Almost half the respondents said that issue made no difference. Ladra can’t help but wonder if that’s going to be the case when she wins the lawsuit against the public subsidy for the private Miami SkyRise project being developed by the mayor’s friend and benefactor, Jeffrey Berkowitz.
Read related story: Round 3 for Raquel Regalado: Mayor’s Miami Skyrise subsidy
But I guess we will have to wait until the next poll for that question, because if there is one thing we know it is that there will be more polls.
“We are far away and it’s one poll,” Foreman said.
But this poll just might be what Regalado needed to make her decision.
She has said she is exploring both the county and city of Miami mayoral seats, but Miami-Dade has all her attention. Notice that the poll didn’t have any city of Miami questions.
Unless those are the missing pages.
Regalado said those questions will not be made public because they will help shape her strategy if she decides to run.
But the two most important questions to her were the one that asked how many people believed that the Miami-Dade government had a significant impact on their quality of life — which 71 percent agreed with (both Regalado and Ladra were surprised that was so high) — and whether or not they wanted change.
And the poll indicates that we certainly do.
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