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Danny Boy was recruited for this race. Scratch that. He’s been groomed for this moment for years.
A former campaign staffer for State Rep. Jose Felix “One More Pepe” Diaz, he also has the GOP firmly behind him when he first kicked off his 
campaign at an event hosted by 70 GOP political and business leaders from South Florida, including Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuño, Jeb Bush Jr., Nelson Diaz, Chair of the Miami Dade Republican Executive Committee and Ladra believes every single Republican member of the Miami-Dade Legislative Delegation. Also on the reception list: State CFO Jeff Atwater and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam.
There is no doubt about it: His core message is “I’m tight with the leadership.”
Read related story: A Diaz, but not THE Diaz files to run for House seat 112
And both Diaz-Leyva and the leadership saw the opportunity 2012 gave them. Add freshman J-Rod’s relative obscurity to Republican performance history in most midterm elections, sprinkle some Cuban American voters from Little Havana and present it to Diaz Leyva and the GOP like a cake. Happy Election!
SaintPetersBlog did a telephone survey last month that indicates Diaz Leyva has a nine point lead — almost the coveted double digits!
But wait! Not so fast! The automated telephone poll is small. Only 226 likely voters. And it has a margin of error of more than six points. Plus, 12 percent of the voters said they were undecided.
Oh, and then there’s the fact that Diaz Leyva had spent at least $170,000 through mid September to get his name out there while Rodriguez has spent $20K.
District 112 stretches from Key Biscayne through Little Havana and The Roads to Allapatah and goes from Brickell on the east to Coconut Grove on the West and parts of Flagami. Thanks to redistricting, there are a lot of different voters here. That is probably why former Senator Alex “The Dean” Diaz de la Portilla lost to the then completely unknown Rodriguez in 2012. Well, that and the Obama thing.
Rodriguez told Ladra that she couldn’t get a good view of the campaign from outside the district because he has been active. He says he is confident wit
h his organization and supporters’ efforts. He’s had volunteers connecting with voters and he’s been attending back-to-back events.
“It’s all about the message and the candidate and there’s a pretty stark contrast,” Rodriguez said.
And Rodriguez, who had spent less than $20K of the $220,000, still has more than twice what Diaz Leyva has left to get that message out and make that contrast clear to voters.
But the incumbent better stop dragging on his honeymoon — he recently wed Sonia Succar Ferre, granddaughter of former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre — and get going. Because the SaintPetersBlog survey indicates that 15% of the Democrats responding would cross over and vote for Diaz Leyva, the incumbent better spend some of those $200K he has left solidifying his base. God knows the local Democratic Party hasn’t focused much on protecting this very flippable seat, distracted as they are with seven — count ’em, seven! — fat chance candidates in races they are destined to lose in seats they don’t have.
Read related story: ‘Fat Chance’ Dems in full House challenge doing next to nada
While Diaz Leyva may have outraised the incumbent, he has spent most of it ($169,000 out of $256,600), at least through Sept. 11, which is the last day reported so far in campaign finance reports. A lot of it has gone through David Custin.
Ooooohhhhh. Now Ladra is surprised the hit piece mailer didn’t say J-Rod voted against wheelchairs for little old ladies, too.
Leyva also paid $25,000 to the DC-based The Victory Group — which won the Oscar for political ads, known as “The Pollie,” for a 2013 campaign spot for Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, another Custin client — for a spot Ladra thinks she saw on Fox News.
Maybe that is why Danny Boy did so well on that poll.
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