Big news: Carlos Curbelo leads in poll. Duh! Do the math

The news really isn’t that this poll done by congressional candidate Carlos “Crybaby” Curbelo showed the Miami-Dade School Board member up by four points against Democrat U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia in what was supposed to be (more of that later) a high-profile national race.

The news is really that it was just four points. Ladra expected it wider.

Never you mind about the blah blah blah coming from the Democratic Party and Joe’s own people on registration drives and how many more young Democrats they’ve recruited. These are not the people who vote. Performance, not registration, is what counts. And history. And math.

We don’t need no stinkin’ poll when you do the math.

Republicans outnumber Democrats among the people who always vote, those who campaign insiders call “supervoters” because they vote all the time, no matter what, come hell or high water. In 2010, which is a similar midterm gubernatorial election, there were just over 50,000 Democrat supervoters in District 26. There were a little more than 66,000 Republican supervoters. That is a 16,000 vote deficit.

For some reason, the Democrats do not look as concerned as Ladra thinks they should be.

While the Democrats like to say they will win a lot of the 26,000 supervoter NPA or independent voters to their side, they need three out of four. That’s more than a lot. That’s a whole lot.

Democrats also like to think that they continue to ride the Obama wave of 2012, but that also didn’t work for them in 2010 following their 2008 high. Midterm elections just historically belong to the GOP.

At least Curbelo released the poll results this time. He kept a primary poll secret. This poll was shared with the Miami Herald by the Curbelo campaign. Or at least some of the poll results were. It shows a 44 to 40 percent Curbelo advantage — that becomes negligible with the 4.9 percent error margin — which grows to a 51-38 percent advantage among voters who have “seen, read or heard something” about the absentee ballot fraud investigation into Garcia’s campaign, and the arrest and conviction of his short term chief of staff and longtime confidant Jeffery “No Relation” Garcia.

What the poll really does is (a) show us how the Curbelo campaign is going to be centered on linking Garcia to the investigation, which has now expanded into Jeff Garcia’s planting of a ringer in the 2010 Republican primary; and (b) give Curbelo cover for his own ethical issues, exposed right here, related to his company being in his wife’s name so he can avoid disclosing his client list publicly.

DC-based GOP pollster Jim McLaughlin told the Herald that the Garcia camp and Democrats are only hounding Curbelo on his client list faux pas to distract from the investigations into Garcia’s own campaigns. But McLaughlin must be forgetting that it was Ladra, an NPA, who uncovered this convenient little loophole que tiene Carlitos. And that it became a big issue during the primary, when Curbelo’s fellow Republicans questioned him on it.

Maybe I forgot a (C) — which is that it gives Curbelo more time to stall and decline to release a client list and register his company under his own name like a big boy would, and especially a big boy running for Congress.

His people won’t talk to Ladra. His spokesman said he would call me back. We’re still waiting.

But the other side is talking.

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Carlos Curbelo, Congressional district 26, Joe Garcia

Big news: Carlos Curbelo leads in poll. Duh! Do the math added by Ladra on September 18, 2014
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