Days after former Congressman David “Nine Lives” Rivera jumped into the Congressional Republican primary for District 
26, Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo — the establishment choice from months earlier — did a poll that cost him $35,000.
And why haven’t we heard a peep about it?
Curbelo did not return a phone call to his cell phone Sunday. Like the other candidates the week before absentee ballots drop, Ladra is certain he is out there knocking on doors and visiting community centers or events.
But I am also quite certain that the reason the poll is being kept under wraps is because Curbelo doesn’t come out too well — or at least, not as well as he would like. It is highly unusual that a perceived establishment front runner would not be sharing his 10-point or whatever lead with the media. Especially in one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.
Read related story: First congressional primary debate a dud
The poll was conducted by New York-based McLaughlin And Associates — who, by the way, also predicted that House Speaker 
Eric Cantor would win by a landslide. Like Curbelo, he was the establishment favorite and better funded than Republican economics professor, Dave Brat, a tea-party darling with a strong grass roots street game and pulled out a win by 10 points.
McLaughlin — which also conducted a poll for Curbelo almost exactly a year ago for $12,000, was paid for the new $35,000 poll on June 10, according to Federal Election Commission reports filed this month. A day later, Curbelo mentioned nada about a new poll when he was quoted in the Miami Herald as saying that he had full confidence in the firm even though they had botched the Cantor numbers by 45 points.
Last year, Curbelo shouted about that old poll from all the rooftops because 
it showed him edging in on Congressman Joe Garcia and a point over him among those who had heard about the U.S. Rep’s absentee ballot scandal. The poll conducted almost exactly a year ago, indicated that Garcia — who had defeated Rivera in 2012 when the veteran lawmaker was under investigation for federal campaign finance violations — was weakened by his own AB fraud scandal, in which his chief of staff, political consultant Jeffrey “No Relation” Garcia, was sentenced to 90 days.
No indication that Curbelo even polled against his ballot mates in the August 26 primary and maybe that was because they had not yet qualified and there could be a surprise. And surprise! Enter David Rivera. Everyone speculated what that little last minute twist did to Curbelo’s campaign, so there is no question that the poll done last month pitted the postalita against ol’ Nine Lives and, at that price, the other Republicans on the ballot. It may have also polled some of his special issues, like immigration and Common Core. After all, this is a $35,000 poll — that’s about three times the cost of the poll he publicized last year.
Which brings us back to why it’s still a secret. Why spend that kind of dough on an “internal poll” if you’re not going to use it to get contributions and votes and, at least, media brouhaha?
The only explanation is that Curbelo is bluffing his confidence and is not the front runner after all.
Read related story: David Rivera’s reasons for leaving FL26 race ring false
Even with Rivera out, there are those who think that former Commission Chairman Joe Martinez, who represented a chunk of the district at the county level, is a force to be reckoned with. And Ladra happens to think that everybody, including myself, has underestimated is the charm and appeal of Cutler Bay Mayor Ed “Mac” MacDougall, who started campaigning before anybody else. Poor Larry Palomares Starbuck is the only one who is going to end up with single digit numbers.
Ladra challenges Curbelo to make his poll public — including methodology and cross tabs — and let us all know if she’s right or wrong.
Carlos Curbelo keeps poll secret in FL26 race for Congress added by Ladra on
View all posts by Ladra →
