Some say it’s a special election hundreds of miles away and can’t be compared to any race here. Others say it’s definitely a wake up call to 
Democrats statewide.
But the victory Tuesday in Pinellas County where newly-elected Congressman David Jolly beat the much better funded former State CFO and gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink has strengthened the argument that Republicans can win back the seats they lost in 2012 to Democrats riding Obama’s coattails — especially since there’s no Obama to motivate voters.
And particularly in District 26, where Congressman Joe Garcia — who beat former Congressman David “Nine Lives” Rivera amid yet another political scandal about Rivera funding a Dem ringer — fell into a absentee ballot scandal of his own and is going to have to defend himself against one of three hopeful Republican challengers.
Granted, Garcia’s seat was already deemed one of the most flippable in the nation. But the Jolly victory, which relied much on connecting Sink to an unpopular president and his Affordable Care Act –he wants to repeal it while Sink said she could fix it — gives Republicans more hope and Democrats more pause for the midterm elections coming in eight months.
Heck, Ladra can envision Gov. Rick Scott dancing a little jig and Garcia taking a deep breath. Because this race — which each party was watching closely as a possible portend of things to come — could have gone the other way.
Think about it. Here is a guy who was labelled a lobbyist, painted as a Washington insider, a guy who ran over and killed a pedestrian once and who cheated on his wife of 15 years with a younger woman. Sink couldn’t beat that? With millions more in campaign contributions, far greater name recognition, a fundraiser in Miami with VP Joe Biden, a robocall from former President Bill Clinton and a press corp that was arguably softer on her than on Jolly?
“This loss shouldn’t be sugarcoated,” said Annette Taddeo-Goldstein, chairwoman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. “Democrats better wake up and see what the hell went wrong and make sure it doesn’t happen again in November.
“This is what happens when we don’t show up to vote,” Taddeo said, referring to the fact that 49,000 fewer voters cast ballots than during the midterm elections in 2010. “We cannot ignore our own base.”
But, she added, while the districts are similar in that they are split pretty evenly in thirds with Democrats, Republicans and Independents, the demographics are different. In other words, voters in the St. Petersburg-based 13th Congressional District are older and more anglo than in District 26.
“I don’t think you can compare them at all,” Taddeo told Ladra.
Garcia campaign consultant John Hennelly agreed.
“Twenty four hours is a lifetime in politics, where there is no long-term memory,” Hennelly told Ladra, noting that Gov. Scott Walker’s win in Wisconsin was seen as a doom for Obama, who still won the state in 2012 anyway.
“A special election has nothing to do with a general election,” Hennelly said.
Others are not so sure and think the Jolly win is good news, or at least motivation, for the three Republicans — School Board Member Carlos Curbelo, Cutler Bay Mayor Ed “Mac” MacDougall and former Commission Chairman Joe Martinez — who will compete in the August primary for a chance to go against Garcia.
“Today is a good day for Carlos Curbelo,” said one political observer, not involved in any of the campaigns, Wednesday, referring to the perceived and self-proclaimed front runner in the race (even though Curbelo, too, has said he favors a “fix” rather than a full repeal).
No doubt about it: Obamacare will become one of the main issues of the campaign. Garcia is already taking hits from conservative PACs with TV ads that attack him for supporting the Affordable Care Act, which was a big part of the Jolly campaign. And voters all over Florida should brace for the onslaught of anti-Obamacare advertising that seemingly worked or has been credited with giving Jolly the edge he needed.
“”It was a special election, so I’m not ready to say it means other Republicans will win in November,” said Nelson Diaz, chairman of the Miami-Dade Republican Party. “But it’s a good sign. The Democrats should have won that race by any measure.
“Obamacare is still highly unpopular because of its negative consequences,” Diaz told Ladra. “Those candidates who support Obamacare are going to have problems. Charlie [Crist, the Dems gubernatorial candidate this year] is going to have to answer for his love for Obamacare, and Joe Garcia, too.”
Jolly’s campaign consultant, Marc Reichelderfer, said Dems are dummies if they don’t separate themselves from Obamacare, which only motivates Republican voters.
But Garcia’s camp believes Obamacare might have positive consequences in the state with the highest number of sign-ups.
“Significantly, it’s going to help with people who have benefitted from the law,” Hennelly said. “People under 26 who can stay on their parents’ policies, people with pre-existing conditions who now can get healthcare, anyone under threat of getting kicked off their plan because they committed the sin of getting sick, women who didn’t have access to birth control.
“For those people, Obamacare works and they are happy to have it in their lives,” Hennelly said.
Well, Ladra hopes
And he better hope those people come out to vote in Miami-Dade. They didn’t in Pinellas.
Alex Sink loss could spell trouble for Joe Garcia in November added by Ladra on
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