Told ya: Joe Garcia vulnerable in ‘likely to flip’ race

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Ladra knew the Congressional race in West Miami-Dade, the GOP battle to take the seat from newly-minted U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, would be one of the closest watched races in the country because it is one of the seats Republicans hope to take back in 2014.

I love it when I’m right.

The National Journal published a list Monday that ranked Garcia as one of the top 30 Democrats in the country whose re-election could be tough. Garcia ranked 15 in their hotlist of “House seats most likely to flip.”

Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo, curiously, was the only GOP challenger mentioned in the article, even though there are two other candidates (three if you count the longshot, which Ladra does not) in the primary: Cutler Bay Mayor Ed MacDougall and former Miami-Dade Commission Chairman Joe Martinez, who lost a mayoral bid to Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez in 2012, but who has a respected Republican firm’s poll placing him in the lead among the three Republicans.

But that’s probably because they haven’t raised nearly as much as Curbelo, and that’s what D.C. insiders look at.

Here’s the excerpt from the National Journal:

15. Florida-26—Rep. Joe Garcia (D) is running for reelection
Garcia is raising money hand-over-foot, but he’s been dogged by a weird scandal (staffers of his plotted to fraudulently cast absentee ballots, apparently without the candidate’s knowledge). Republican Carlos Curbelo could be a strong challenger. One underreported fact about this district: Garcia’s 2012 victory is attributed to then-Rep. David Rivera‘s complete campaign meltdown amidst scandal but Obama’s margin over Mitt Romney in the district was almost exactly the same as Garcia’s over Rivera. Cuban-heavy Miami is experiencing something of a Democratic shift in national politics. GOP Gov. Rick Scott‘s approval could also be a problem for Republicans in the Sunshine State in November.

That “weird scandal” landed his Chief of Staff, Jeffrey “No Relation” Garcia, in jail on a 90-day sentence for illegally requesting the ABs. He got out early, naturally, on good behavior. And the Congressman has said he knew nothing about it, something the State Attorney’s Office has apparently confirmed.

Obviously tickled pink, Curbelo — who could not be immediately reached for comment — sent out a press release touting the article.

“Every day it becomes more and more evident that Garcia’s win last year was a fluke and that he does not adequately represent our community. The National Journal article notes that Garcia has spent most of his time in Congress responding to the scandals prompted by his campaign and raising funds for his reelection. What an embarrassment for the people of South Florida,” Curbelo said, stumping for more campaign cash with a link to his website.

“If you have already contributed, please invite someone else to do the same,” the well-funded Curbelo practically begs. “While Garcia has proven to be a disaster as a Member of Congress, he will have millions of dollars from myriad special interest groups at his disposal. We need the resources to fight back.”

And, also, to keep this race as one of the closest watched party battles in 2014.

  Carlos Curbelo, Congressional district 26, Joe Garcia, Joe Martinez.