It’s not really news that former Miami-Dade County Chairman Joe Martinez is going to run for Congress, even though he is only formally announcing it this morning at a West Dade senior center named after his mother.
The news, for many, is that he is going to announce he is the frontrunner in a Republican primary next Fall.
A poll done for Martinez earlier this month shows he has what experts say is a healthy lead in a first round against School Board Member Carlos Curbelo and Cutler Bay Mayor Ed MacDougall (Key Largo’s Felix Peixoto is also running, but won’t get much attention).
Each man is intent on challenging Democrat Joe Garcia, who beat longtime U.S. Rep. David “Nine Lives” Rivera, riding the coattails of the Obama wave in a presidential year and the climbing negatives of his opponent. Since being elected, Joe Garcia has been looking the part — working hard to be involved on immigration and healthcare issues, even if it is to chase away the cloud of absentee ballot fraud that shadows his 2012 campaign. For a freshman Rep., he has been given a lot of street cred by the White House.
This will be one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country. And the candidates might find themselves used as pawns on both sides of a national scale race that Miami has never seen the likes of before — with large sums of money, high profile endorsements and outside groups as the fight for congress takes place here in our backyard.
It’s no secret that Martinez planned to run. He made his “soft launch” earlier this year, when he simultaneously announced his campaign and his cologne, The Commissioner. He has told Ladra repeatedly that, despite losing a countywide mayoral run last year to Mayor Carlos Gimenez, he has wide support in the 26th Congressional District, of which more than 70 percent overlaps with the county district he represented for 12 years on the Miami-Dade commission.
And his poll may show he’s got something there.
Done by the Washington D.C.-based The Tarrance Group — not some rinky dink Miami pollster who would give Martinez the numbers he wants — the survery of 300 Republican super-voters has Martinez up by 3 points over Curbelo, who is 11 points over MacDougall. But the poll also shows Martinez is doing better among just a few key groups: women, men, college graduates, conservatives, voters age 45-64 and people in the Keys, which is part of the district. The lead among the latter two jumped to double digits.
Curbelo, who has caught most of the attention so far with near weekly press releases that beat up on Joe Garcia for one thing or another, is not worried.
“I’m not concerned about anyone’s polls. I’m different from all that,” Curbelo said. “I’m not obsessed with public office like Joe Garcia and Joe Martinez are. I’m not going to run en times for the same office or for whatever seat I can find.
“That’s pathetic,” he said, but now he’s talking about the 3-point lead. “This is a guy who was in office for 11 plus years, who campaigned last year for county mayor, and he is up against a young school board member? I hope this helps sales of his cologne,” Curbelo told Ladra.
“Now, is this the same polling company that told him he could win he mayor’s race?”
Ouch.
Now Curbelo is talking like a man who’s been campaigning for six months or so and has raised almost a half a million dollars. Maybe it’s his strategy to pretend there is no primary, because he is focused on one thing: Joe Garcia. Curbelo himself hasn’t polled primary prospects at all.
“I prefer to use campaign resources for other things,” he told me (more on that later).
In fact, the only poll Curbelo has done was the one released much earlier this year, in which all voters were polled, not just Republicans. “We did a poll to make sure my race was winnable,” Curbelo said.
But, well, you gotta get there first, doncha?
The numbers certainly have Martinez feeling confident. Or vindicated, maybe is a better word. The Chairman seemed to have a “told you so” tone in his voice when we spoke about it and he reminded me that Ladra had called Curbelo the early frontrunner (but that’s what you do with money machines), which he says wasn’t nice.
“These people have elected me many times already. I’ve had Republicans, Democrats and Independents voting for me,” Martinez told me, again hinting at a platform line which will be to bring unity to D.C. partisan politics. Kumbaya, people.
“The best shot to unseat Mr. Garcia at this point is someone who can gain the confidence of the people who aren’t Republican,” Martinez said.
And, thankyouverymuch, Mr. Curbelo. But he said he went to the national Tarrance Group in order to avoid the problems with some local pollsters. “It was not a local Dario or Bendixen who you can tell is not skewing the numbers,” Martinez said (not me) referring to Prof. Dario Moreno and pollster Sergio Bendixen.
And while Curbelo may be underestimating is old friend, MacDougall seems to respect the competition more.
“It’s significant in that it shows Joe Martinez is a viable candidate. He’s obviously well-recognized,” MacDougall told Ladra. “I like Joe a lot. We’re both former police officers. He and I have a good rapport.
“And I don’t want it to be a one person race,” he added.
Well, it looks like now it officially is a three-man battle. Key word: Man. Because if a Hispanic woman throws her name into the hat, it’s all over but the crying. (Are you reading this, former State Rep Ana Rivas-Logan? Or are you still focused on a county commission seat now held by Commissioner Lynda Bell?)
Martinez will announce his candidacy at 11 a.m. at the senior center on Hammocks Boulevard and 152nd named after his mother, Dr. Olga Maria Martinez.
Who, by the way, was a Democrat.
Joe Martinez formally announces, claims ‘poll’ position added by Ladra on
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