Who’s behind Homestead poll? Not any of the candidates

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An automated poll in Homestead has raised the possibility of yet another candidate in this year’s already interesting mayoral race.

Vice Mayor Jon Burgess was mentioned as one of the candidates in a poll of 250 voters done Thursday (and which, ooops, reportedly reached a number of businesses, too).

The poll has some people thinking that Burgess, who has not formally announced his candidacy, is testing the waters — considering leaving his comfort zone for a crowded field under cloudy skies. Or maybe someone is trying to encourage him more strongly.

Mayor Steve Bateman is definitely more vulnerable, even if he isn’t arrested before the primary in October, which is widely rumored, due to headlines about an investigation into his influence peddling and, basically, using his public position to land a sweet and secret side job as a consultant for a company who needs an in with local government.

Some insiders believe Burgess — who is only halfway through the four-year term he was re-elected to in November 2011 — doesn’t have the moxie to make the move. After all, he barely eeked his way onto the dais in 2001 with just under 51 percent of the vote against former Councilwoman Judy Waldman. Others say there is a lot of buzz about it and that he would be the candidate to give Bateman the biggest run for his money. Some dare say Burgess could take it in the primary even. In any case, he has to decide by Aug. 30, which is the qualifying deadline.

But why would anybody else involved include his name unless that was a consideration? Of course, his wasn’t the first name thrown out in individual contests against the incumbent.

It continues asking, substituting former Councilman Jeff Porter and the Rev. Joseph Sewell, other mayoral candidates, and pairing always with Bateman. But neither one of those two have any money with which to pay a poll. At least that’s what las malas lenguas say. Which might make one think that the mayor is the one who is testing the waters, since they’ve gotten a little choppy for him, to see who he’s going to have to attack the most. Lois Jones, a fifth candidate that declared late last month, wasn’t included in the poll because most serious observers give her less chance than Sewell, who won’t make it past the October primary.

The poll also asks voters who they would support in each of the council races and, interestingly, which issue they think is the most important facing the city: crime, public corruption or the rates for the electrical service that Homestead provides to its residents itself. Yeah, that caught my eye, too. Read on.

Notice the public corruption in there. I bet that one rates high. It has in other surveys, too.

This poll was done by AI Advisory, the same company that did some voter software work for Mayor Carlos Gimenez‘s Common Sense Now PAC. That leads to candidate Mark Bell, because he is Miami-Dade Commissioner Lynda Bell‘s husband and she is an ally of the mayor’s.

Nope, said owner Armando Ibarra. He would not tell me who commissioned the poll but, after some grilling, did confide that (A) He didn’t know Jon Burgess and (B) It wasn’t done for any of the candidates.

Wait a minute? You mean it was for an interested third party? Interested parties — such as Ladra, but with money — can run independent polls if, say, they want to see who is a better bet to support or if they are thinking about throwing a candidate into the mix. But a third party poll means that the results can’t be shared with one candidate without being shared with all — unless it becomes a campaign donation.

A third party could also be former Councilman Steve Losner, who many say is seriously considering either a run for mayor or a run for a council seat. He served on the city council from 2001 to 2007 and has been wanting to come back ever since, running for mayor in 2011, losing with only 43 percent of the vote.

But, also, now that question about the electrical rates becomes more interesting, doesn’t it? Because electrical service, charter schools and the speedway are the only real other “interested third parties” Ladra can think of when she thinks of Homestead. And there were no education or economic development questions.

Granted, Ladra only started taking walks in Homestead recently. So, I was hoping Ibarra would share the results of the poll with me, even though he seemed to call numbers at large and cold rather than target high performing voters, which is why the prompt asked demographic information like age, ethnicity and political affiliation at the end — because the pollster did not have it up front.

Anyway, no such luck. Ibarra said he’d ask his client. Who is not a candidate.

At least not yet.

  Homestead mayoral race, Jon Burgess, Mark Bell, Steve Bateman, Steve Losner