Paul Crespo “testing” 112, where Dean DLP leads poll

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Maybe the third time is the charm.

Candidate Paul Crespo, who has been running in the race for House seat in 102 for almost two years since losing to U.S. Rep. David Rivera in the 2010 primary, is testing the waters to see if he should move his campaign closer to home –to district 112. His camp polled likely voters last week and released results that show the former Marine, WQBA radio show host and Miami Herald editorial board writer could be a viable candidate. (Of course, they wouldn’t release results that showed otherwise).

But Ladra isn’t raising her nose to the poll because Crespo came in number two ahead of former State Rep. Gus Barreiro, even though that was mildly surprising. I’m downright flabbergasted that he only trailed by single digits the number one pick — a candidate that’s not even technically in that race, yet, and still wins the poll.

Former Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla, who has filed to run in the state Senate race against Sen. Gwen Margolis (Dem., District 35), leads the unscientific survey of a scant 250 respondents, which is the first of many problems I have with the poll. But even though Ladra can rip the poll to shreds, and will (with the confidence of having discussed my doubts with three professional pollsters),  let’s first report the interesting and entertaining results.

Diaz de la Portilla, the Dean of South Florida politics, was included in the poll because everybody knows he has a solid plan B if the Supreme Court fails to uphold the will of the people and force the voter-mandated fair districts map to change and better represent the evolving demographics. That plan is to revert back to where he first filed, for the House seat being vacated by termed-out Rep. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (Rep., District 112), who will likely soon announce his plans to run against Miami-Dade Property Appraiser Pedro Garcia.

So it made sense for Crespo, photographed here with presidential candidate Rick Santorum, to include Dean DLP in the automated poll (read: otherwise even Ladra might not write about it), which asked likely voters who would get their nod if the election were today (well, Wednesday was today in the call). They pressed 1 for Crespo, 2 for Barreiro, 3 for former state prosecutor Eric Padrón and 4 for Diaz de la Portilla. Naturally, it’s a poll for the August primary so Democratic candidate Jose Javier Rodriguez was not included. But Ladra thinks that if they had rotated the names, which is standard, Dean DLP could have had a much wider lead than three and six points over Crespo, a constant guest on Spanish language TV magazine shows who does score name recognition points (52% according to the poll) for that.

According to Crespo campaign man Emiliano Antunez, Diaz de la Portilla had a 23% share, compared to 17% for Crespo, in overall total. Among Hispanics 55 and over, the gap closed to 26% against 23%.  Bareiro and Padron were in the single digits and almost half of those questioned were undecided. When the voters were under 55 and both Hispanic and Anglos, the DLP’s lead grows to almost 10 points, with 12% to Crespo’s 3% (Bareiro also got 3% and Padrón 5%) and 77% were undecided.

Now, Ladra always looks at internal campaign polls with a jaundiced eye simply because they are not likely to show results that would not position the candidate well. When a campaign pays $15,000 to $30,000 for an independent, professional poll, it is different. In addition, the margin of error on a sampling of 250 voters is 8 or 9 percent, which automatically brings a potential gap to double digits. Mid double digits. And, call it the hype of political idolization, Ladra thinks it’s even wider than that. Sure, Crespo has name recognition alright. But the DLPs win the gold medal for that and this is the Dean’s stomping grounds, where his district office sign  still stands on Southwest 7th Street in Little Havana and where big brother Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla currently serves. No way there was a three point spread.

And while the perenially cocky DLP, naturally, laughed out loud at the results — “It’s more than comical,” he said — the numbers have encouraged Crespo to seriously consider switching to 112 from 102. “Redistricting changed the entire playing field and a lot of people have had to readjust,” Crespo said in a telephone interview Friday, assuring that the poll was not intentionally slanted to his advantage.

“A lot of people do that. But I wanted good information so I could make a decision. I wanted to know how I stand up in that area,” Crespo said and explained why he believes the short gap between him and the legendary DLP is there. “He’s been out of it for a while and people want new leadership. People know me because of my beliefs. I am not a professional politician.

“Even the Republicans are trying to get new blood and not the same old political retreads. They’re itching for new, dynamic leadership that is not tied to special interests,” Crespo said in a first dig that may hint at what a campaign against the Dean could look like, if it gets to that.

But a perenially suspicious Ladra (some people would say jaded), thinks the numbers don’t make sense and can’t be relied on. Despite the reasons stated above, an automated poll in a heavily Hispanic district is not going to get a good sampling simply because most abuelitos are going to get confused and hang up. “Ay, quien es? Que dices? Mira ver, Aida, que no le entiendo un co..,” will be the likely reaction in many homes. That’s probably why the poll of 6,000 probable voters only yielded 250 results — a 1-20 ratio instead of the more standard 1-7 or 1-8. The poll was also done on the night of the Marlins opening game and a Miami Heat game — but maybe that was intentional. Antunez should have known better.

Still, Crespo says it is enough to make him consider the switch and, of course, they may be just setting up the stage in case Dean DLP gets his new map and Senate seat so Crespo can get into pole position.

“I wish Mr. Alex Diaz de la Portilla all the luck in the world and that the court goes his way and he gets his Senate seat,” Antunez said.

I bet you do. Apparently, you are joined by several House incumbents, simply because they would rather have him serve over there than in their chambers.

Still, if that happens, Crespo’s campaign better have another wish left so that the Dean’s brother, School Board member and former State Rep. Renier Diaz de la Portilla, doesn’t move into that race from the 103 race he is filed in now. Baby DLP has said he would not run against an incumbent — but 112 doesn’t have one.

Maybe he should have been included in the poll.

  Alex Diaz de la Portilla, Eric Padron, Gus Barreiro, Paul Crespo, Renier Diaz de la Portilla