Finally! Manolo Reyes looks real good in Miami Commission race

Ya era hora. It looks like this might be Manolo Reyes‘ year after all. Every poll says so.

Even Ralph Rosado‘s poll.

These two guys have been running for Miami City Commission forever — or at least since when they both thought they would be on the 2013 ballot for District 4 before Commissioner Francis Suarez‘s first-time mayoral dreams crashed and burned after a series of campaign gaffes. Reyes a little longer even since the perennial candidate has six other commission races under his belt. Six!

People in the district — which is from Silver Bluff to Flagami, on the border with Coral Gables — are used to seeing Reyes on the ballot. He’s been running since 1985 and Ronald Reagan was in the White House — coming real close in 2009 when he lost by about 300 votes to Suarez. It’s no wonder that he’s leading all the polls. He’s practically an incumbent.

Okay, technically, Rosado has a 4 point lead in his poll. But that is within the margin of error and the poll was a push poll. If that is the only way that Rosado can get from 30 points below to a few points above, Ladra is going to go ahead and give that win to Reyes, too.

The first poll we heard of was commissioned in February by former Miami City Commissioner Marc Sarnoff, who wants to stay relevant as a lobbyist and may run for county commissioner or something else in the future. He showed it off to donors as he sought contributions for Reyes’ campaign. Someone sneaked me photos of the pages. He was up by 35 points. Only 9 percent of the 300 voters surveyed knew who he was.

That was early in the campaign. But a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in late June for the city of Miami’s firefighters union showed Reyes holding those 30 points months later.

Commissioner Suarez has polled twice, and while he wouldn’t disclose the results with Ladra — the new mayor is being diplomatic so as to not rock the boat — several other people who he has apparently shared them with reported that Reyes has kept the comfortable double digit lead he had from the first poll to the second.

And then we have Rosado’s poll, done for $9,500 in August. Rosado claims in an email blast that he has the lead, and links to a Miami Herald story that says the two men are neck and neck. But the numbers weren’t disclosed in the story and three different sources told Ladra that Reyes was still up by four points, which is within the margin of error (hence the “neck and neck” description).

But it is important to note, however, that the point spread is within the margin of error. And that it was a push poll, with questions designed to identify issues and character traits that would turn voters off from Reyes. “Would you still vote for him if you knew he was a career politician,” type of question. Perhaps Reyes would have held on to his lead if the questions were not pushing voters away.

Rosado knows this. Despite his bravado on his email blast, he has started to attack Reyes in a TV spot and mailer that casts the high school economics teacher and former Miami-Dade School Board budget analyst as a career beaurocrat and loser candidate who has run unsuccessfully six times.

It seems desperate, for Rosado, who ran for state rep in 2010 and lost to Michael Bileca, later moving into the city of Miami. Like the best straw to grasp onto is the false security of a 4 point lead in a push poll.

Rosado did not return multiple efforts to reach him. Instead, he texted “my quote for the story” to Ladra: “Our internal numbers tell us that there is a path to victory. I’m very excited by the support my campaign has received in the community.”

Sounds like what they all say.

Heading into the final two weeks before the Nov. 7 election, Reyes — who has been active in the city and on boards for more than two decades — also has the majority of endorsements. He has nods from Mayor Tomas Regalado, Commissioner Willy Gort, former State Rep. Manny Prieguez, West Miami Mayor Eduardo Muhiña and West Miami Commissioner Luciano Suarez as well as the city’s firefighters, solid waste and general employees unions.

“Manolo has served our community his entire life and he is not part of the establishment,” said Freddy Delgado, president of the firefighters’ union. “He has as much experience as an incumbent commissioner, which is good for the citizens and those that serve them.”

Meanwhile, Rosado has the Fraternal Order of Police.

Oh, wait, Ladra almost forgot. There is a third candidate in the race. But marketing professional Denise Galvez, who made her claim to fame as co-founder of Latinas for Trump, is scoring around 1 or 2 percent on these polls and won’t get more than 5-8 percent on Election Day — and only if she is extremely lucky and snags that women’s vote. Then, just like her orange mentor, she will blame Democrats and everyone else but herself for her loss.

So now that we got that over with, this race is squarely between the two guys. And while there is still more than two weeks for Rosado to gain on Reyes, he may have a hard time doing that if he keeps squandering $10,000 on a push poll here and $5,000 on a billboard there and $3,400 for post-it notes on the Miami Herald — the billboard and post its are seen by thousands of people who don’t vote in his district or, even, the city of Miami. He should concentrate on direct voter contact and is getting bad advice from consultants Al Lorenzo and Fernando Diez. A billboard? Really? He could have sent two mailers with that money. And digital media is also sort of a waste in a district where about half the voters are over 55.

Rosado is spending his money faster and has less cash on hand than Reyes by about $16,000.

All this — the polls, the money, the community support — indicates that it’s Reyes’ turn. Al fin!

Denise Galvez, Manolo Reyes, Miami elections, Ralph Rosado

Finally! Manolo Reyes looks real good in Miami Commission race added by Ladra on October 19, 2017
View all posts by Ladra →